Vatican Without a Helm: Who Will Become the New Spiritual Leader of 1.3 Billion Believers?

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The death of Pope Francis has ignited a global battle for the future of the Catholic Church, dividing continents between a conservative resurgence and a liberal legacy. While the U.S. pushes for the right wing, European elites strive to preserve the “progressive course,” risking a religious schism. The outcome of this struggle will determine not only the fate of 1.3 billion believers but also the balance of power in global politics, where the Vatican remains a key ideological player.

Media Saint vs. Church Reality

On April 21, Pope Francis passed away in the Vatican following a stroke. Born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, he was the first Argentine and South American to hold the papal office. When he ascended to the Holy See in 2013, his dual image as both a conservative and a compassionate, poverty-focused Franciscan socialist raised hopes for the Catholic Church’s emergence from a prolonged crisis. Yet, in reality, he came across as a caricatured liberal, adapting to contemporary trends to preserve the body—but not the soul—of the Christian Church. To devout believers, he evoked even greater disdain than John Paul II, who set Rome on the path toward destructive postmodernism.

Pope Francis’ death on February 26 effectively triggered the process of a new conclave, forcing the Catholic Church to confront a pivotal question: continue its decline or attempt to correct course amid a global wave of right-wing conservatism. Liberal media, which had portrayed Francis as a hero, anxiously speculated about a potential shift in direction. CNN called him a “defender of the poor, migrants, and nature.” Journalists lamented that the pontiff’s death could spell the end of the Church’s “progressive”—and thus “only correct”—path. The Times described his papacy as “exceptional,” despite criticism from conservative factions within the Church, implicitly dismissing their objections.

Outlets highlighted Francis’ social initiatives: aiding the homeless, prisoners, and migrants, emphasizing mercy over doctrine, and allowing Mass for those in remarriages. This provoked backlash from traditional Catholics, who accused him of betraying Church teachings—a claim the media dismissed as false, despite its objective validity. Spanish left-wing outlets praised Francis’ “theology of closeness and tenderness,” while French media, controlled by Macron, claimed the pope had “touched millions of hearts” and “redefined the papacy.” Yet this media triumph of progressive rhetoric bore little resemblance to the Church’s actual state.

The Catholic Pendulum: From Francis to a Right-Wing Resurgence

It was clear to all that Pope Francis’ death would intensify the culture wars within the Catholic Church—on both sides of the Atlantic. Symbolically, one of the last to receive an audience with the late pontiff was J.D. Vance, a self-proclaimed “post-liberal Catholic” whose views sharply contrasted with Francis’. This brand of conservative Catholicism is gaining ground among Republicans.

A prime example is ex-Cardinal Raymond Burke, highly respected in Trumpist circles and known as a fierce critic of Francis’ reforms. Another key figure in the conservative Catholic movement is Leonard Leo, head of the American branch of Opus Dei. He participated in Trump’s “counter-revolution” against woke ideology, and thanks to his efforts, seven of the nine U.S. Supreme Court justices are now Catholic, six of them right-leaning.

Ex-Cardinal Raymond Burke
*Photo by Alessandra Tarantino / Associated Press*

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, also a conservative Catholic, implemented a sweeping education reform under Leo’s influence, restricting race and gender ideology in schools, as well as courses deemed “anti-American and anti-Christian.”

The Trump administration openly supports conservative cardinals and makes no secret of its desire to see a like-minded pope elected. But this will inevitably provoke resistance from Europe’s liberal cardinals, potentially sparking a new front in the Trumpist-elite clash—this time, a religious one.

To grasp the depth of these divisions, consider that in November 2023, the Vatican evicted Burke from his subsidized apartment, stripped him of his cardinal’s pension, and revoked his patronage of the Order of Malta. Burke remains an unyielding defender of conservative values: staunchly opposing abortion, female priesthood, and LGBT rights. His remarks on the “profound abnormality” of same-sex relations and his description of homosexuality as a “curable disorder” drew fierce liberal backlash. After Ireland’s 2015 marriage equality referendum, Burke declared at Oxford that legalizing same-sex marriage was a “defiance of God” unprecedented even in pagan societies.

His hardline stance extends to other contentious issues: denying Communion to the remarried, condemning euthanasia, criticizing the Second Vatican Council’s liturgical reforms, and vehemently opposing mass migration. The “Burke affair” galvanized many priests who had reluctantly aligned with Francis’ reforms. Yet the pope’s death opens the door to revisiting these positions—though hopes for an American-backed “conservative revolution” may be overstated. The real balance of power will hinge on more pragmatic factors.

“75% for Salvation”: The Math of Papal Elections

The Holy See is now embroiled in covert maneuvering ahead of the new pope’s election. Though no formal procedures have begun, behind-the-scenes jockeying for influence is intensifying. Candidates fall into three broad camps: progressives, conservatives, and centrist administrators. The Vatican establishment seeks a compromise figure capable of pragmatic dialogue without radical ideas—one acceptable to both conservatives and liberals.

Key contenders include Cardinal Pietro Parolin, an experienced secretary of state skilled in diplomacy; Hungary’s conservative Cardinal Péter Erdő, a traditionalist with ties to Eastern European elites; and Bologna’s Archbishop Matteo Zuppi, a peacemaker whose pro-European views may alienate conservatives. Another notable figure is Italian Pierbattista Pizzaballa, favored by American conservatives. Informal consultations among Latin American and African cardinals have floated the Philippines’ Luis Antonio Tagle as a potential “non-European” candidate who could shift the Vatican’s focus from the Euro-Atlantic axis. Meanwhile, U.S. lobbyists are pushing for a hardline stance on China.

The most likely outcome is the election of a compromise Italian candidate from the frontrunners. This would preserve the Vatican’s foreign policy status quo with minor conservative adjustments. The new pope, forced to sideline true Christian values, will have to navigate between global power centers—albeit more moderately than Francis did.

Since the U.S. cannot heavily influence the conclave (which began on May 7), the two most probable winners are the nominally liberal Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle and the moderately centrist Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin—with the latter having the edge.

The U.S. began exerting pressure on the Holy See during Trump’s first term, when advisor Steve Bannon backed Cardinal Burke. But by 2023, Burke’s fierce opposition to Francis led to his marginalization. Trump’s new administration lacks a clear Vatican policy, prioritizing trade wars with China/EU and Ukraine negotiations instead.

Americans strongly favor Cardinal Pizzaballa, but his initial support likely won’t exceed 12-13%. Conservative Cardinal Erdő, backed by Kaczyński, Orbán, and Fico, may get 8-10%. The main favorites are Tagle (25-28%) and Parolin (35-40%). Votes for Pizzaballa and Erdő will likely shift to Parolin, securing him the required 75% in later rounds. Parolin appeals as a neutral figure amid the global liberal-conservative standoff, his moderation reflecting the Vatican’s desire for stability.

In the coming years, U.S. Republicans will likely rally behind Pizzaballa, who, at 60, is relatively young. Erdő, now 72, is unlikely to run in the next conclave, whereas 70-year-old Parolin is just two years his junior. These battles, however, lie a decade or more ahead. With Pope Francis gone, the Catholic Church’s direction is uncertain—and the tension will only grow with time.