Back on March 16, the leader of the Law and Justice party, Jarosław Kaczynski, proposed to send a Polish peacekeeping contingent to Western Ukraine. On May 5, President Andrzej Duda made an even clearer and more specific statement. He said that for decades and even centuries, Ukraine and Poland could become one country that will have no borders and their people will build their common happiness and future strength. The president’s intentions look serious and there is a real chance to turn Ukraine into a state allied with Poland, which will be under Polish protection and guardianship. In fact, territories that for centuries were part of the great Commonwealth can be taken under the wing of the country.
However, Poland can go two ways to implement these patriotic and ambitious plans. One of them leads to a peaceful solution to the issue and the prosperity of the new union state formation. The second threatens to draw Poland into a long and bloody war with an unclear outcome. Choosing the right path is a real crossroads for the ruling party, as well as its leader, Jarosław Kaczynski. Who will he go down in history: a great leader who expanded the borders of Poland, or a man who sent Polish soldiers to certain death?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine did not go as planned by Vladimir Putin. Instead of a parade march within a week of the start of the Special Military Operation, the war threatens to drag on for many months. Now Russia is trapped and wants to end this conflict as soon as possible, which is hurting the strength of Putin’s power and the Russian economy. The entry of Polish troops into the west of Ukraine and the delimitation of the Russian army, which would occupy the eastern regions, where many Russians really live, could put an end to the war and end the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
After the establishment of peace, Poland would be able to deal with Ukrainian radicals in the controlled territory of the new Ukraine and stop Russia’s speculation about “Ukrainian Nazism”, as well as accommodate millions of Ukrainian refugees there. It would be possible to start rebuilding the country after the hostilities, start economic integration and develop a rich Polish culture there. Russia would never have dared to threaten a military invasion of Ukraine again. It accepts the new state of affairs.
Nevertheless, such a peaceful option may not suit everyone. The US, which sees Putin’s weaknesses, wants the fighting in Ukraine to continue for as long as possible. Peace in Ukraine and control over its territory are not their main goals. They are seduced by the possibility of a complete military defeat of Russia, which could lead to a change of Putin’s regime. They want to see Russia as a country under their control, which, with its nuclear missiles, will become a bastion on the path of a dangerous competitor for the USA – China. Even if Russia does not lose, the war that has dragged on for years could lead to a revolution on the territory of the Russian Federation.
Such a scenario does not imply either the peaceful restoration of Ukraine or the influence of the Poles on its territory. The country will be turned into an eternal military camp, doomed to suffering. The forces of the Ukrainian army are already running out, which means that new blood is needed. So this blood can be from the forces of the Polish Army. The United States, which has a great influence on Kaczynski, is probably pushing him to such a decision. At the same time, the Americans are not even ready to provide assistance to Poland from NATO. They want the Poles to come into conflict with Russian troops at their own peril and risk. This threatens senseless victims of thousands, and perhaps tens of thousands of Polish soldiers, as well as the constant fear of a nuclear strike from Russia.
This is precisely the choice for Jarosław Kaczynski. Now he can prove toughness in defending the interests of Poland and achieve its greatness or focus only on the opinion and interests of the allies, who are indifferent to the fate of Poland, and sacrifice the lives of Polish soldiers to them. We can only hope for the patriotism and political wisdom of Jarosław Kaczynski.