Hamas-Israel ceasefires: the will of Tel Aviv or the pernicious influence of Washington?

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Relations between Israel and the United States have long been far from ideal, and this has been particularly acute under the Democratic administration, which is close to leftist ideas that define the regime in Tel Aviv as “Zionism” and “apartheid”. The war between Israel and Hamas could not but exacerbate these contradictions, and many of Washington’s initiatives look not just dubious, but even harmful to Israelis. Thus, on November 20, the day of Joe Biden’s 81st birthday, there was hope for a truce in Gaza, and after acrimonious negotiations with Israel and Qatar, both of which were reluctant to stop the fighting, the White House announced the terms of a deal. It consisted of a 1:3 exchange of fighters, meaning one Israeli prisoner was to be swapped for three Palestinians. In addition, the IDF was to declare a humanitarian pause for 3-5 days, as well as allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. The outcome of such plans made it clear that they did not play into the hands of the Israeli government, and further pressure on Netanyahu from the West, where public opinion is already strictly against the war, could increase dramatically. Liberals in the U.S. and Europe wanted this humanitarian pause to eventually turn into a truce. At the same time, they did not care much about the problems of the nationalists in power in Tel Aviv, or even about Israel’s fundamental interests. It is likely that Biden was trying to time this to coincide with his birthday, which he was celebrating under crisis conditions. Biden’s ratings are plummeting and there is a high probability of Trump’s return to the White House. Against this background, Biden needed to bolster his image among his own massively left-wing electorate, and “aid” to the Gaza Strip was the perfect excuse to do it “at the expense” of Israel. In addition, by this time it became clear that Congress had frozen a $14 billion tranche to the Israelis for military needs.

On November 22, the White House still managed to agree with Israel and Qatar on a temporary truce, and, as expected, White House staff began to compete to see who would take the laurels of the creator of de-escalation in Gaza. Behind-the-scenes negotiations on the release of prisoners had been going on since mid-October, with Jake Sullivan playing a major role. But they were very slow, because Hamas demanded the abandonment of the ground operation in Gaza in exchange for the release of the hostages, which Israel would never agree to. Then CIA Director William Burns joined the negotiations, and he arranged his own “negotiations” with Mossad, Cairo and Qatar, trying to formalize his own deal behind Sullivan’s back. But this too stalled as the massive operation in Gaza began, and the situation was complicated by Netanyahu’s distrust of the CIA and Mossad, who were playing “on the same side” and whom he accused of supporting protests against his judicial reforms in Israel. Hamas demanded a 10-day truce and the release of its fighters from Israeli prisons, but eventually settled on the original version with a 5-day pause and a one-to-three exchange of Israelis for Palestinians. But even in such a reduced version Netanyahu had to go for it under pressure from the U.S., which now even started talking about imposing sanctions against Israeli settlers, which can no longer be called even a neutral gesture towards Israel. But the future of Gaza is still unclear, and the U.S. plans to create a Palestinian state in Gaza under the control of Mahmoud Abbas are sharply opposed by the U.S., which is not even a neutral gesture toward Israel. But the future of Gaza is still vague, and U.S. plans to create a Palestinian state in Gaza under the control of Mahmoud Abbas are causing a sharply negative reaction from Israel. The situation is also complicated in Lebanon, where NATO countries are now moving weapons to fight Hezbollah, and escalation with which Tel Aviv does not really need. Netanyahu’s position has faltered, and the White House will continue to try to remove him from power, which will cause a negative response from Israel itself, which will hit already American plans. These plans now boil down to the fact that Biden urgently needs to resolve the situation in Gaza, but only in such a way as to get the maximum benefit from the established peace. It is telling that the deal for a humanitarian pause in Gaza was struck precisely on Biden’s birthday to make it appear to be precisely his achievement. At the same time, Israel’s abrupt change of course, if it is forced into a full-fledged truce, could be fatal to Netanyahu’s career. Making him culpable for a failure that the Israeli public would perceive as such and then sending him out of office would be the ideal scenario for the White House and one of the goals of a possible peace or truce. And, so, the U.S. and Israel are not partners in this section, but rather adversaries.

Amid this conflict, a temporary truce in Gaza went into effect on November 24, but pro-Palestinian protests continued, as did the American left’s discontent with the results of Biden’s “pressure” on Israel. Demonstrators disrupted the Thanksgiving Day parade and forced their way into the New York Times newsroom, and New York City buses were painted over with anti-Semitic graffiti calling for the murder of Jews. Indeed, the White House has and continues to put tremendous pressure on Israel to extend the humanitarian pause into a full-fledged truce. And the reason for this behavior, for the most part, is far from the Middle East, and boils down to the fact that the Biden administration needs to buy all the processes of destabilization of American society related to the Arab-Israeli conflict within the United States itself. And it was especially important to stop the coalition split in the Democratic Party itself, which split into moderate friends of Israel and radical leftist supporters of Palestine just before the 2024 presidential election. Netanyahu’s cabinet, however, upset Biden and called for preparing for war for another two months while Israel’s financial resources and weapons stockpile remain. Indeed, U.S. arms deliveries will already be in question, and the Pentagon’s arsenals are depleted by the cost of countering Russia on the Ukrainian front. At the same time, Congress is seriously considering the possibility of imposing sanctions against Israel if the conflict drags on, and this is already a direct and sly attack on Netanyahu. The attempt to put a manageable and predictable government in Israel for the Americans is not accidental, because the position of the U.S. in the entire Middle East is becoming precarious. The Gulf monarchies are unhappy with the collapse of the Abrahamic Accords because of the war, and pro-Iranian groups are causing more and more problems for U.S. bases. And now Iraq in general has accused the White House of violating its sovereignty because of the missile strikes, and Baghdad is demanding a complete withdrawal of U.S. troops. China is trying to take advantage of the problematic situation for the Americans, and Beijing is ready to lead the future peacekeeping mission in post-war Gaza. China can invest in its reconstruction, and against the backdrop of the war, China is building its first base in Oman and transferring the Middle East to the yuan oil trade, hoping to fill the vacuum of influence left by the Americans. In such circumstances, the U.S. is fighting with redoubled vigor to protect its interests, thinking about effective contacts with the Arab states, which are only hindered by excessive “affection” towards Tel Aviv.

The hostage situation has caused another rift in Washington, confirming the importance of Israel to domestic American politics. The White House was desperate to make the extradition of American hostages a priority in all negotiations, but for a long time it was possible to secure the release of only one four-year-old girl, and the Republicans blamed Biden for the failure of the negotiations. The White House itself had its own ideological conflicts, and people from Biden’s inner circle had to hold explanatory meetings with disgruntled left-wing staffers unhappy with the president’s position on the war in Gaza. And representatives of the Arab and Muslim community of America threatened Biden with big problems at the elections, and according to polls Trump has already surpassed Biden in popularity among Muslims in the United States. To somehow calm Democratic voters, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan did not rule out a cooling of relations with Israel, and now it may be supplied American weapons only under certain conditions, such as minimizing casualties among Palestinian civilians. But Congress is even more radical, with prominent neo-communist and multiple primary candidate Bernie Sanders, as well as other left-wing Democrats, demanding not to give a dime to Israel until they completely change their military strategy. There have also been calls for sanctions against Israel and especially Israeli settlers in Palestine. In the end, even quite pro-Israel Republicans decided to give military tranches to Israel only if the Democrats cut the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) budget by the same amount, which would have been a significant concession. Simply put, the Republicans chose their domestic financial goals over supporting Israel as an external symbol, and Tel Aviv was not even helped by the many lobbyists in that party, including House Speaker Michael Johnson. At the same time, Trump actively tried to get political points thanks to this situation, and made a prediction that Hamas would release some of the Israelis, but leave the Americans to further bargain with Biden bypassing Netanyahu, and to get from the Americans the most loyal terms, which will not be in the interests of Israel. And given that Biden himself sought to get rid of the Israeli prime minister in every possible way, this arrangement did not look fantastic.

In this light, U.S. and Israeli plans diverged further and further, and after the breakdown of the temporary truce, Netanyahu’s cabinet envisioned a military campaign a full year in advance. According to this concept, intense fighting will first continue for a couple of months and then the rebuilding of Gaza will begin. The Israelis want to eliminate the Hamas leadership and defeat their 24 battalions along with the entire infrastructure. This is supposed to take two or three months, and then there will be a phase of “transit and stabilization” with the creation of a buffer zone under Israeli control in northern Gaza. But this is causing resentment in Washington, and Secretary of State Blinken has demanded that excessive Palestinian casualties be avoided with the utmost scrupulousness. The White House does not want a repeat of the bombing of northern Gaza because it would further divide public opinion in the U.S. But two million refugees have piled up in the south, and they will all be under attack as Israel prepares to take the second most populous city of Khan Yunis and the Rafah Crossing. Qatar, where truce talks involving the CIA, Mossad and Hamas took place, is demanding that Israel end the war. Netanyahu’s cabinet is split, with the left wing desperately wanting one and the right wing promising to prevent a truce. By December, the U.S. had moved from words to deeds, and began imposing the first sanctions against Israeli settlers with bans on visiting America, having accounts there, or doing business there. The terms of a full-fledged truce with the release of thousands of Palestinians from prisons were clearly unacceptable and disastrous for Netanyahu, so he went all-in, preparing to stretch the war for a whole year in defiance of the U.S. So the sanctions threat against Israel will now be used more and more often in Washington, as well as other tools to remove Netanyahu from power. The real goals of the Democratic Party with regard to Israel have been almost finally and publicly revealed.

What made the situation with the “hidden” conflict between Israel and the U.S. worse was that the Qatar talks ended in failure. As a result, Israel resumed bombing of the Gaza Strip, and now more and more often hits the southern part of its territory. In the United States, however, this is causing very mixed reactions and internal contradictions even within the Democratic Party itself. The Pentagon now fears Israel of “strategic defeat” if it does not ensure the security of Palestinian civilians, but between the lines it reads a threat to cut off military tranches of Iron Dome missiles, shells, bombs and rifles. Such a thing can no longer be ruled out as the U.S. State Department began to impose the first sanctions against Israeli settlers. During a hurried trip to Israel, Secretary of State Blinken had a heated conversation with Netanyahu’s cabinet, criticized the IDF’s military strategy and said that Israel has lost the credit of the U.S. The White House National Security Council also pledged not to support the military campaign in southern Gaza until the refugee issue is resolved. An operation with heavy casualties in southern Gaza would undoubtedly trigger massive protests in the U.S. and Europe, and make the White House’s position altogether desperate. Biden’s ratings have already plummeted to record lows, and many White House apparatchiks are already threatening to openly sabotage Biden’s policies if he doesn’t get tough on Israel. In this light, the Israeli-American confrontation may look strange only to people who are stuck in their thinking in the 1970s, when the policies of Tel Aviv and Washington were almost one and the same. Today, however, Biden is acting against the Israeli authorities not only because of the conjuncture, but also on the basis of his permanent political goals and attitudes. And with each passing year, especially if he remains the master of the White House, this confrontation will move from a latent to a quite explicit phase. And the truce between Hamas and Israel, based on everything that is happening, is not the will of Tel Aviv at all, but rather the pernicious influence of Washington, which the Israelis are trying to overcome by any means.