Who could “replace” Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee: dreams and reality

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The U.S. presidential election to be held this November is, as always, marked by a historic confrontation between the Republican and Democratic parties. Traditionally, before the main election campaign, each party holds primaries, which started in January, and here the situation in the opposing camps is both similar but fundamentally different. The Republicans have Donald Trump in the lead with 60-65% of support, and there is no doubt about his victory. However, if we imagine that tomorrow the Democratic establishment could put away its main opponent or he would “suddenly” fall victim to an assassination attempt, there is someone to replace him and they are quite worthy leaders. First of all, they are Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, who are in 2nd and 3rd place after Trump, but Marjorie Taylor Greene and even Matt Gaetz, who is not even in the race for the primaries, could do well. However, 2028, when Trump will not go to the polls anyway, could be a time of opportunity and victory for all these politicians. On the opposite flank at the moment, Joe Biden, despite the concerns of much of the Democratic electorate and part of the Democratic establishment about his health, is also the virtually unopposed Democratic nominee in the upcoming election. But it’s not that Biden has earned a tremendous amount of credibility in office, and besides his health, even many Democratic voters are dissatisfied with his domestic and foreign policy blunders and for most members of the party’s left wing, he is the real quintessence of the party elite they hate. And the reason for his lack of alternativeness lies not in his personality, but in the even greater weakness and ambiguity of his rivals and potential rivals within the Democrats.

But before touching upon each individual “alternative to Biden,” it is still worth noting that there are objective reasons for his leadership, although they are highly debatable. Among them we can single out both electoral and elitist circumstances. On average, according to the latest polls, Trump beat Biden in the election with 49-50% against 44-45% for the incumbent, and Trump won not only in percentages, but also in the calculated number of electors. On the face of it, this is a pretty poor and almost hopeless showing. However, his main competitors in the Democratic Party primaries show similar or even worse results, which cast doubt on the need to “change” him. Vice President Kamala Harris, for example, received 42.5% in the latest poll, compared to Trump’s 51%. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg received an average of about 39% vs. 49%, left-wing activist Bernie Sanders had 40% vs. 48%. Hillary Clinton was gaining 41% vs. 51% for Trump, and California Governor Gavin Newsom, with the best approval, was getting 45% vs. 49% for Trump. One must also consider the fact that Biden is the most recognizable candidate against his lesser-known alternatives, which is a big plus. In addition, the election will be non-personal and ideological in nature, where the population will choose between conservatism and “progressivism”, and replacing Biden in such circumstances is not feasible. Simply put, Democratic voters will try to stop the “demonic” Trump from advancing to the White House, and the name of his opponent will be secondary here, which, by the way, has already worked with Biden in 2020, where he could hardly be written down as the best of the best either. It is even more significant that from the point of view of the democratic political and business elites, Biden is a guarantor of intra-system agreements, which will be violated if all the above-mentioned politicians come to power, except, perhaps, only Hillary Clinton, whose nomination in the primaries is unlikely, and therefore speculations about him are rather hypothetical. In this light and under the conditions of the primaries already started, Biden’s rotation as a candidate is possible only in case of his death or health condition that will not allow him to run for president. Still, things happen in this world, and we can identify 5 possible alternatives that could theoretically save the Democratic Party from possible problems.

First, it is worth mentioning Hillary Clinton, who is the “last safety net” if the Democratic campaign falls into a severe crisis. Against the background of the electorate’s tendency to vote for recognizable and “professional and proven” politicians, she is, if not the best, then a very good candidate. Moreover, like Biden, she is well known to Democratic elites and is seen as reliable. Clinton does not take part in the primaries and can only get involved if Biden “drops out”. From the minuses we can single out her poor health and the burden of failure in the 2016 elections, which make her a known “failure carrier”. Nevertheless, in the latest poll on Biden’s possible successors, she came second with 13%, behind only Harris, which proves her high status. The same status is held by Michelle Obama, the first lady of the United States under her husband Barack Obama, who is also not a participant in the primaries. Due to Barack Obama’s continued significant influence on Democratic Party politics, she is considered his protégé and therefore elite credibility is transferred to her. In addition, she is well-received by the electorate, as her figure is associated with the “golden age” of the Democrats during her husband’s presidency. She has not participated in public polls as a candidate, but presumably her possible rating is comparable or even slightly higher than Biden’s support, and fluctuates between 44-48%. Michelle’s disadvantages include her poor experience in politics, which will manifest itself both during the campaign and during a potential presidency, which will cause the Democrats many problems. The perception of her as a public figure, but not a politician, may also play to her disadvantage already during the campaign.

If we talk about those candidates who are taking part in the primaries, Kamala Harris immediately comes to mind. She is the current Vice President of the United States, who is a member of Biden’s team, and her interests are hardly at odds with the demands of the elites who once promoted her boss. In addition, she is the leader according to polls of Democratic voters regarding an alternative to Biden with 24%. Nevertheless, both many voters and establishment Democrats view her as highly unprofessional and not executive, which would create problems if she were to take the presidency. It is these factors that make her candidacy a possibility but not a priority, and many see her only as a temporary face brought in 2020 by racial-ethnic quotas to garner votes from “people of color”. On December 21, Kamala Harris even overtook Biden in popularity. A Monmouth University poll showed that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’ approval rating was higher than incumbent President Joe Biden’s, with 35% supporting Harris and only 34% supporting the president. At the time, this was the lowest poll result of Joe Biden’s term, but it was only an episode, and Harris’ chances are hardly higher than those of Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama. Even lower in the rankings sits Gavin Newsom. The California governor has the closest rating to Biden and could quite effectively fight Trump in the election. He is in the primary and is seen by 7% of Democratic voters as Biden’s successor. However, he has many disadvantages, including ineffective state management, which worsens his image among the Democratic electorate. In addition, the establishment does not see him as a fully reliable promoter of its interests. Finally, rounding out the top five is Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. He is the least likely candidate to be Biden’s understudy, although he has a 7% rating among Democratic voters. Pete Buttigieg ‘s downside is his scandalous reputation and his perception by the elite as an unprofessional upstart who has made a career out of portraying himself as a homosexual, which he most likely is not. Over the past year he has been the subject of many scandals, the main one being a clear demonstration of the failure of his work as Secretary of Transportation, which ended up in numerous railroad disasters, the largest of which was the February 2023 accident in Ohio, which resulted in a significant environmental disaster. In addition, most recently, his closest political associate received jail time for pedophilia. Buttigieg’s only plus is his extreme controllability due to the compromise, but he will become an alternative to Biden only in case all the above mentioned candidates for one reason or another fail to take part in the election race. However, as long as Joe Biden is okay, this is just a dream for each of these five persons, and in November, with a 95% probability, we will see the classic Trump-Biden confrontation, which has become as classic in American politics as the Karpov-Kasparov rivalry in chess in the 1980s.