Trump wages war on liberals in the EU with tariffs, militarism and local nationalists

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Trump and the EU are engaged in a silent battle for influence in Hungary, where the upcoming elections are becoming a battleground between conservatives and liberals. While Brussels is trying to use the issue of LGBT pride parades to put pressure on Orbán, Washington is lifting sanctions and supporting the Hungarian prime minister. This conflict has even divided the Hungarian opposition, demonstrating the growing influence of the American right on European politics.

An Atlantic rift in the heart of Europe

Despite the public but clearly fake politeness between Trump and EU leaders, their tacit confrontation continued, and Hungary became the focus of attention for Washington and Brussels. The European establishment is trying by any means possible to destabilise the situation within Hungary. To this end, they began to use the not-so-fortunate topic of gay pride, the organisation of which was hindered by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Washington, on the other hand, is lifting sanctions against Budapest, clearly linking its actions to its loyal ideological activities, and allowing the construction of a new energy unit at the Paks Nuclear Power Plant with the participation of Russian companies to continue.

Returning to the fight against the LGBTQ+ lobby, Viktor Orbán planned to ban their parade, but in the end, local liberals, who control the city government, decided to organise a celebration of defiance, and to this end, European MPs from many countries were brought to the Hungarian capital, although the issue of gay pride ultimately divided the opposition, which has long been betting on a conservative agenda alternative to ‘Orbanism’ and has had some success in this regard. After all, the LGBTQ+ agenda is clearly rejected by Hungarian society, and the curators bet on Péter Magyar’s very moderate Tisza Party , but politicians from Brussels, accustomed to the triumph of liberal attitudes, were not very willing to change their attitudes and damaged the image of their own allies.

This plays into the hands of Orbán’s partners in the United States, because their tactics are working, and the political mainstream is changing significantly on the other side of the Atlantic. In America, major sponsors are refusing to financially support gay pride events, and Republicans are now actively fighting back against racial and gender ideology. Elections will be held in Hungary in the spring of 2026, and officials in Brussels hope to bring about a change of power and Orbán’s resignation. To this end, they are supporting his former ally and betrayer of his ideas, Péter Magyar, whose party is competing on equal terms with Orbán in the polls. But the veteran European politician has allies in the United States, and Orbán has established very close contacts with the American right, which will not remain on the sidelines of the Hungarian elections.

It is no coincidence that Budapest regularly hosts the CPAC conference, which brings together conservatives from the United States and European countries. The White House has now lifted sanctions that were hindering the construction of a Russian nuclear power plant in Hungary, not only to find common ground with Russia, but also to support Orbán in his economic populism. The upcoming Hungarian elections promise to be a real arena of confrontation between Washington and Brussels, where everyone will fight for victory and ignore the ‘democratic remnants of the past.’

Defence farce and trade collapse

Indirect support for Orbán and the European right wing is evident in Trump’s tariff wars with the EU and his pressure to increase NATO military spending — this will either hit Europe’s social sphere or expose the inability of the liberal elites in Brussels to ensure security. A striking example is the manipulation of the defence budget. Italy, where Giorgia Meloni is in power, plans to include the construction of a bridge to Sicily (at least €13 billion) in its military spending, formally increasing expenditure by 20-30%, even though the project has no direct connection to defence.

*Photo by Marek Studzinski / Unsplash.com*

Sicily was not chosen by chance — it is home to a US Navy base, which allows the bridge to be presented as a ‘strategic facility’. Italy, which spends only 1.5% of its GDP on defence, is not alone: Southern European countries are looking for ways to avoid real growth in military spending. Britain, for example, plans to include the ‘green transition’ and the fight against migrants in the English Channel in its defence spending. But such tricks are unlikely to satisfy Trump — by the end of the summer, the Pentagon may recommend reducing troops in Europe, blackmailing the EU with the withdrawal of security guarantees. Against this backdrop, European elites are forced to pretend to fulfil their obligations, even initiating unnecessary construction projects such as the Sicilian Bridge, just to save face in front of voters and Washington.

European business, meanwhile, is morally resigned to the need to survive Trump’s tariff attacks, and Europeans are raising the white flag in trade negotiations with the US. They are ready to accept 10% duties on all European exports to America, as well as 25% tariffs on their automotive industry. The alternative to this is a 50% protective tariff, which could plunge the European Union’s economy into a deep recession at a time when Europe’s trade deficit with the US is setting new records. In 2025, it could well reach a staggering $300 billion. Moreover, it is unclear how the European Union will be able to close this trade deficit, because purchasing more energy resources from the US is unrealistic against the backdrop of stagnation in the European economy, and no one will import food into the European Union either, because local farmers will start rebelling again.

The White House would not mind forcing Europeans to increase their purchases of weapons from the US, but here too there is a tendency among European ‘liberal militarists’ to spend more defence funds on developing their own industry. The Germans, for example, plan to allocate €25 billion to purchase several thousand new tanks and armoured vehicles in the coming years. However, the level of arms production in Germany leaves much to be desired, with only 40-50 tanks being produced there per year. These problems also plague the American military-industrial complex, but Trump’s tariff wars will only exacerbate the de-industrialisation of the European Union, and the German automotive industry will continue to lose ground to the Chinese. The crisis in the economy will accelerate centrifugal processes within the European project, with the strengthening of the right wing and nationalists, which is exactly what is needed.

Brussels’ financial impasse

Europeans are suffering damage to their image and are hastily trying to replace the US in Ukraine. Immediately after the BlackRock investment fund left Ukraine, the European bureaucracy announced the creation of its own alternative structure to attract investment for the country’s post-war reconstruction. But there is nowhere to get the money from, and redirecting funds from social spending to Kiev’s needs is causing outrage even among the very moderate and even liberal electorate.

A summit was held in Rome in support of Ukrainian lobbyists with the participation of a US delegation led by Keith Kellogg, but no concrete commitments were made — investors are not ready to invest hundreds of billions in the Ukrainian economy. The country’s recovery is estimated to cost a trillion dollars, and current expenditure in 2026 will require €40 billion, but the White House, the IMF and Japan are distancing themselves. Europe can only allocate tens of billions, which is clearly not enough. At the same time, in London, Macron and Starmer discussed the creation of an ‘industrial Entente’, which seems unrealistic against the backdrop of Britain’s de-industrialisation and the budget crisis in both capitals. At the same time, BlackRock has successfully shifted Ukraine’s toxic assets to Europeans, who do not have the resources to maintain them. Now the only question is how quickly the EU will realise the hopelessness of the situation and the split will begin.

In Europe, the split is also evident in the budgetary sphere, and the process of agreeing on the next EU budget for 2028-2034, which the Eurocrats want to make a record one and bring up to €2 trillion, is now accelerating. The previous seven-year budget was €1.2 trillion, and an increase of almost 67% is realistic, with the only question being where to spend the money. Southern European countries want to give more money to farmers and to the development of the ‘green agenda’, and they are sceptical about Brussels’ attempts to increase defence spending. In Germany, as a key EU country, there are fears of a debt crisis if the Eurocrats continue to borrow money as actively as before. A separate issue is the impact of Trump’s tariff shock, which threatens to impose 30% duties on all European imports, which could cost the EU economy 2-3% points of GDP growth, plunging it into a full-blown recession, as the EU’s trade surplus with the US reaches $250 billion a year.

*Photo by Guillaume Périgois / Unsplash.com*

Trump’s team is transparently hinting to Europeans that they could balance trade by purchasing weapons from the US, but even the entire €100 billion EU defence fund would not be enough for this, not to mention the fact that the fund is being created in an attempt, albeit futile, to revive the European military-industrial complex. Some European countries are now using all sorts of tricks to deceive Trump and, as we mentioned above, are increasingly including spending on combating migration or the environment in their military budgets. Ultimately, everything will come down to the inability of the American military-industrial complex to produce enough weapons for Europe’s needs, although by that point, due to all the budget wars, orders already placed in the US may simply be cancelled.

The bottom line is that Trump is doing everything he can to boost his ratings within the US by terrorising European liberals and helping his allies among the European right. And we must give credit to the American president, who is fighting liberals in the EU with tariffs and local nationalists very successfully.