The Republican and Democratic primaries have come to an expected end

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On March 13, the U.S. primaries were de facto over in both parties, with Biden and Trump officially winning. Both candidates received the support of more than half of the delegates after the voting in 4 states that day, and despite the upcoming party conferences, it is safe to say that now only in case of death of either of them a replacement candidate will happen. If Biden was a completely non-alternative figure and the votes turned into a mere formality, the Republicans had a though doubtful, but quite palpable intrigue in the form of the struggle between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Thus, Trump received 85% in Georgia, where the vote was held on March 13, against 13% for Nikki Haley, who had already withdrawn from the race. Her supporters continue to stubbornly boycott Trump’s victory, but there is more good news for him, since as tellingly as it was, it turned out in the Republican primary in Georgia was twice that of the Democrats, indicating the high enthusiasm of the conservative electorate in this key swing state. Before the actual end of the primaries, there were a number of votes that well reflected the essence of the American domestic political process.

Thus, on February 27, a difficult primary was held in Michigan, which became the fifth state in order for both Democrats and Republicans. Formally, there were no major surprises, and both Trump and Biden won convincingly, but his results pointed to an intraparty split in both parties. Trump won by an even larger margin than he had in South Carolina a few days earlier, getting 68% to 28%for Nikki Haley, a neoconservative and the only remaining competitor. By then, she had totaled $76 million in sponsorship money to end up losing in all the states to Trump. For the Democrats, the situation was more interesting, and although Biden had no real competitors, the intrigue was all about what result he would get. 81% of Democrats voted for Biden, and another 13% actually voted against him, protesting Biden’s militaristic agenda, which is inconsistent with the increasingly leftist and pacifist orientation of most Democrats. Michigan has a significant Muslim diaspora and was outraged by the war in Gaza and support for Israel. Radical left-wing Democrats campaigned to keep them from voting for Biden, and the campaign had an effect. In this regard, the consequences could be very serious for Biden, because Michigan is one of the key states in the election, and despite having a Democratic governor, Trump consistently outperforms Biden here. In one of the latest Emerson polls, Trump beat Biden in 7 of the 7 most important states, and the split among Democrats closer to the election is only going to get worse. And despite the “crushing” victory in the primaries, Biden’s candidacy does not arouse any enthusiasm among his supporters, as evidenced by the turnout in Michigan, where 60% more voters participated in the Republican primary than in the Democratic primary.

That day, Trump as the favorite in the presidential race won three states at once in the primaries overnight, and got the votes of all the delegates not only in Michigan, but also in Idaho and Missouri. At that point, Trump had 244 delegates, but he needs to get 1,215 votes to win. Ahead of Super Tuesday on March 5, when 15 states were scheduled to vote at the same time, it was clear that by mid-March, Trump would be officially the winner and his competitor in the form of Nikki Haley would be out of the race. Trump celebrated the victories at a rally in North Carolina, where he called himself a “proud political dissident” who is fighting Biden’s “criminal regime” and mocked the problems with prosecutors who are trying to sue him. For example, in Georgia, where a prosecutor was found to have a conflict of interest, she helped her lover capitalize on the case against Trump, and a Biden crony oversaw the whole disgraceful trial. In a NYTimes poll in early March, Trump beat Biden by 5 points with 48% to 43%, and that ratio has held up in one form or another to this day. Trump has also dramatically increased his support among women and Hispanics amid a splintering of the Democratic Party’s minority coalition. Many of his “racial opponents” still sympathize with Trump, who they are trying to put away for 700 years. Trump accused Biden of wanting to stage a coup d’état in the U.S. by bringing in millions of illegal aliens, and added that he could not be intimidated by criminal charges. That’s why the Democrats have to discuss scenarios of a real liberal revolution as a last-ditch effort not to give power to Trump.

Against this backdrop, on March 4, for the first time in two months, something good happened for Nikki Haley, and she won the primary in the District of Columbia, getting 63% there against Trump’s 33%. The win was largely symbolic, and turnout in a liberal region where even the most radical Republicans are moderate Democrats was only 2,000 voters, and Haley only got 19 delegates. But this was the first area where Haley won, and for an obvious reason. You can see that the Washington establishment can’t stand Trump at all, because he’s promising a massive purge if he wins, and to retire tens of thousands of liberal apparatchiks in the intelligence agencies and the Pentagon. Apparently, this fear was transmitted indirectly even to local Republicans. True, it was already clear that Haley would not win anywhere else. There was Super Tuesday on March 5, and Trump was leading in all 15 of the 15 states voting at the time. Haley would then have had to drop out of the race immediately afterward, but she kept hoping for some sort of force majeure from Trump along the lines of his sudden withdrawal from the election. Just the day after the primaries in Washington, D.C., the long-awaited Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s eligibility to run in the primaries and the election was due to be handed down. No one was expecting any special surprises, and the justices, by a 6-to-3 or 7-to-2 margin, promised to vote in Trump’s favor, though his opponents childishly hoped for a miracle. Haley tried to blackmail the former president’s team, and pointed out that if Trump did not take her on board, she would split the Republican electorate. For Democrats, Haley suggested that she would become an independent candidate and Trump’s spoiler. However, her crazy old-fashioned agenda is of little interest to anyone, and if nominated, she will score even less than Biden spoilers Robert Kennedy and socialist Cornel West.

And so, on March 5, 15 states voted in the primaries, including giants like Texas and California. The results were generally expected but it was not without surprises, with separate problems forming for both Trump and Biden, the two favorites in the presidential race. Trump was hoping to win all 15 states out of 15, and he almost did. In a number of states like Oklahoma, Trump even got under 90%, but he still lost in one state. Haley won by a narrow 49% to 45% margin in liberal Vermont. Biden also lost unexpectedly in one of the territories, American Samoa, but more problematic for him were the results in Minnesota and North Carolina. Here, 20% and 13% of Democratic voters, respectively, voted against him, and it’s significant that both of these states are swing states, which bodes well for problems in them in November’s election. Minnesota, like Michigan, has a sizeable Muslim diaspora which resents Biden’s militaristic policies, with support for Israel and the bombing of Gaza. Leftists, Muslims and migrants are threatening Biden with an election boycott that will lead to his defeat. But the main outcome of Super Tuesday was that Trump and Biden cemented their status as major candidates. The question of what Haley will do remains open, but it has become definitively clear that she will have to withdraw from the primaries. Haley was offered to be Trump’s spoiler and an independent candidate in the election. Well, the split in the camp of both parties remains, although it carries much more risks for the Democrats than for the Republicans.

The finale of Nikki Haley’s presidential epic turned out to be as chaotic as her entire campaign. She paused 12 hours after the Super Tuesday results were announced, eagerly awaiting feedback from Trump’s staff and an offer to bring her on board. Unfortunately, Haley never received any offer, and so she ended the campaign on a nervous note in her heart and even refused to endorse Trump’s candidacy, even though she had previously pledged to support the winner of the Republican primary. The primaries were de facto over, and Trump already had under 1,000 delegates at the end of Super Tuesday, and there was no doubt that he would soon surpass the coveted 1,215 delegates. Now Trump’s task was to consolidate the electorate around him, including Haley voters. After all, a lot of people voted for her, namely an average of 20-30% in each state. Biden is already fighting for this electorate, and the Democrats immediately congratulated Haley on her exit from the race and offered to work together against Trump. There’s a reason Haley is mostly donated money by Democratic Party donors, and they are the same ones suggesting she now go to the polls as an independent candidate as Trump’s spoiler. Well, Trump is already tuning up for a fight with Biden, and is trying to improve his financial position at the expense of Elon Musk, who is also dissatisfied with the Democrats’ power. After all, Biden’s main advantage now is fundraising, and his Biden staff has 130 million dollars on hand against Trump’s 30 million. America can only hope that both age-old candidates make it to the polls without unexpected deaths. Now a new scandal has erupted around Biden. During congressional hearings, it was revealed that he read information from classified documents to his “literary negro” for the release of his memoirs. This is a blatant violation of the law, but Biden will not be dragged to court for it, citing at least his memory and health problems. Although he didn’t face any opposition in the primaries, that’s a disadvantage to his campaign, because Biden’s ratings leave a lot to be desired, and the colourful battles in the primaries could have improved them in some way. Many Democrats are voting against everyone in the primaries, resenting Biden’s militarism. Failures in Ukraine and chaos in the Middle East continue to splinter America. Isolationism is gaining popularity, and Trump is playing on this sentiment, promising to put the hawks in Washington out in the cold. Still, November will be unpredictable, and we would estimate the chances of Trump and Biden to be 50-50% one way or the other.