The Houthis are confronting the U.S., Israel and the entire West

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Suddenly, at the turn of 2023-2024, poor and forgotten Yemen became the center of major political and economic events after the Houthis began attacking merchant ships passing near its shores to pressure Israel, which is waging war in the Gaza Strip. Initially, this was seen by many as simply a symbolic act of support from Yemenis and their Iranian patrons for the Palestinians, which had purely propaganda value and was intended to shape the commitment of future generations of Islamic militants to Tehran and its allies. This would have been an entirely correct view since Yemen’s geographic location near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait is strategic, with a direct connection to the Red Sea and one of the world’s major trade arteries, the Suez Canal. In the end, these attacks went beyond “symbolic” and were able to partially paralyze ship traffic through the canal, and the international-level blackmail by the Houthis, which they may not have originally planned, succeeded in creating a world-class problem. Back in December, 46 tankers from major ocean carriers changed their route and took the long route around Africa instead of the Red Sea, which added 40% to the transportation time. Cargoes from Asia and the Middle East are now arriving in Europe and the U.S. with a lag of at least 10 up to 15 days. This is a huge blow to logistics, because up to 15% of the world’s trade and 8-9 million barrels of oil per day go through Suez, not to mention the supply of scarce chips from Taiwan to the EU. The U.S. was shocked by this development and decided to make partial concessions to the Houthis almost immediately. Thus, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin hurriedly arrived in Israel. He immediately demanded from Netanyahu to change the military strategy, otherwise Israel “faces a strategic defeat”, although the real motivation of the general lay on the surface. The White House was pushing for the operation to be scaled back in the coming weeks and for Gaza to be rebuilt, hoping that this would stop the bacchanalia in the Red Sea.

The mood in Europe, where Israel had initially been viewed with skepticism, began to change rapidly, but now they were panicked by the shortage of goods, for which Tel Aviv was indirectly to blame. In particular, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock wrote a joint article calling for a ceasefire. They were followed by former Defense Minister Ben Wallace, who said that he was confident that Hamas’s influence in Gaza would continue and considered Israel’s tactics of warfare to be wrong. The British activity is understandable because the closure of Suez has jeopardized the logistics of the BP oil company and the threat of empty shelves this winter has become real. The CIA and Mossad are trying to negotiate another ceasefire, and everyone is afraid to touch the Houthis for fear of a big regional war, even though they continue to disrupt a nice and quiet Christmas for the West. But the big trouble for the strategy of the U.S., U.K. and EU is the changed policy of Israel, which does not want to make concessions that could be negative towards the Jewish state. Benjamin Netanyahu is once again threatening to move the fighting to southern Lebanon with bombings in Beirut and attacks against Hezbollah. This will undermine the Biden team’s attempts to somehow negotiate with Iran, and the White House has so far responded sluggishly to the strikes on U.S. bases, and now it is also admitting that it does not want a conflict with the Houthis, for fear of escalation, for which neither the Pentagon nor the U.S. economy is ready. After all, its stability is Biden’s achievement before the 2024 elections, which are objectively more important to him than Israel and the entire Middle East policy. At the same time, the U.K. is morally preparing for another shortage of goods and empty shelves this winter and it’s not just the fact that the logistical problems of the passage through Suez are aggravated because of the Houthis: the Panama Canal is in trouble right now because of drought and falling water levels. In such a situation and London, which is often prone to adventures, is not ready for an aggravation in the Red Sea region. The world’s largest sea carrier Maersk is already trying to avoid sending its tankers along this route, and although the U.S. military fleet operates in the area, it is far from always coming to the aid of civilian vessels. They are also fired at by Hussite missiles and attempted to be hijacked by Arab militants, and even by Somali pirates, who have again felt their power. In this complex situation, an easy and favorable solution for the Western countries is no longer visible on the horizon

In the meantime, chaos is growing in the Red Sea. Hundreds of tankers continue to take the long and troubled route around Africa instead of Suez, and the price of cargo insurance has jumped fivefold from 0.1% to 0.5% of the cargo’s value. A typical tanker carrying $100 million worth of goods now has to pay $500,000 to insure against a Houthi attack. Against this backdrop, Wall Street fears that the logistics crisis caused by the Houthis will add up to 3 points to global inflation. Western economies, which have somehow beaten back the inflationary wave, should prepare for new shocks with shortages of goods and another price hike. The Houthis found the vulnerability of the world economy, and hit it squarely and successfully. This immediately made the Western establishment stir, and Tony Blair rushed to Israel, hoping to negotiate a new humanitarian pause in Gaza. In addition, CIA Director Burns held another round of talks with Mossad and Qatar, representing Hamas. The Hamas leadership arrived in Egypt, and was joined by Israeli intelligence and British foreign policy chief Cameron. They had hopes that some kind of agreement could be reached. In addition, Western pressure on Israel to halt the Gaza operation had intensified by January, because the alternative to peace in Palestine was a new round of inflation and empty store shelves. The countries of Europe and the U.S. faced it fully in 2022 during the most acute phase of the Ukrainian conflict, and having overcome the crisis with great efforts, they do not want new problems on the background of a new big war.

It is obvious that a full-fledged military confrontation in the Red Sea will not solve the problem of the crisis in the Suez Canal, but will only aggravate it, leading to a large-scale political crisis and rising oil prices. Among the arguments against the operation is the unpreparedness of the U.S. army morally and technically for a decisive conflict in the region, not only with Iran, but even with the Houthis themselves. In order to preserve its image, the U.S. pompously announced a plan to protect freedom of navigation under the name “Operation Prosperity Guardian”, which was supposed to be a beautiful theatre rather than an effective military operation. However, even in this venture, the Americans immediately ran into the problem that everyone wants military protection, but no one is willing to provide it. Canada has said it has no ships to send to the Red Sea, and Australia has admitted that its existing 7 frigates and 3 destroyers simply cannot stand up to the drones of the Houthis. In addition, the loss of any ship would be a major blow to Australia’s small fleet. As a result, the Americans have offered only to protect U.S.-flagged vessels, but the maritime carriers are demanding that any Western vessels be protected. The power of the U.S. navy may simply not be enough for that, and the inability to deal quickly with the Houthis hurts the U.S. reputation around the world. The obvious winners in this situation is Russia, whose shadow tanker fleet the Houthis have promised not to touch, and China, for which any logistical crisis in Europe becomes a competitive advantage. It is easier for the Chinese to develop their industry and, for example, to replace the products of the stagnating European industry with Chinese electric cars. In addition, China is leisurely building a military base in Oman and will try to take advantage of the instability in the Middle East to offer its security services, bypassing the U.S. as the former guarantor of calm.

The U.S. is reaching an increasing deadlock in the military operation against the Houthis, having lost not only Canada and Australia but also the entire EU as allies. Spain unexpectedly blocked the European Union’s decision to contribute to the U.S. Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea. EU countries had initially agreed to a proposal by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell to “strengthen information sharing and increase presence with additional maritime assets” in coordination with the U.S. mission. However, Spain unexpectedly blocked this decision in a very sharp and categorical way. Sources in Brussels say that there is a political reason behind this decision. Allegedly, Spanish parliamentarians were not happy that the Spanish government announced its intention to participate in the U.S. operation, and Prime Minister Sanchez did not argue with his allies and partners. But most likely, as in the case of Hungary’s permanent veto of aid to Ukraine, here Spain has assumed only the role of a subject of refusal, although such a desire is a pan-European consensus. Formally, more than 20 countries have already agreed to participate in the operation, but their assistance is most often formal, and is expressed in the participation of representatives of these or those countries in the leadership of the headquarters of the “Operation Prosperity Guardian”. Thus, Brussels emphasizes that the EU’s military mission will not change and will continue to be led by the EU with an expanded mandate to coordinate with the U.S. maritime operation to contain the Houthi attacks, although in reality this is only a diplomatic courtesy. Spain’s decision could complicate the EU-U.S. coordination of efforts to secure shipping in the Red Sea, as well as cause a split within the EU over how best to deal with the threat posed by the Houthis. It remains unclear how events will unfold going forward. It is possible that Spain could find a way to overcome its differences with other EU countries and participate in the U.S. operation. However, it is also possible that this decision will have more serious consequences for EU-U.S. relations. Amid the indecision of Western countries, on December 20, the Houthis announced a general mobilization of the male population in their zone of control in Yemen to be sent to the Gaza Strip. In addition, the Yemenis are assembling a capable army ahead of a possible intervention by the U.S.-led coalition. Although their capabilities are obviously not great and there is a serious amount of populism in their statements, today the Houthis and the right are very effectively confronting Israel, the U.S. and the entire West, which is losing the ability to act responsibly and decisively.