“Playing with Fire”: How the Middle East Track Is Burning Trump’s Ratings

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Donald Trump’s attempt to achieve foreign policy success by concluding a truce in Gaza has turned into a deep domestic political crisis. The decisions to locate a Qatari military base in Idaho and to pressure Israel have provoked an angry reaction from his own MAGA electorate, leading to a drop in the president’s ratings. At the same time, left-wing Democrats and trade unions, dissatisfied with the dismissal of civil servants against the backdrop of the shutdown, were preparing large-scale protests, threatening the administration with conflict on two fronts simultaneously.

The Middle East as an electoral threat

The Middle East factor is dividing America and even Republicans close to US President Donald Trump, posing real challenges for him within the US. For example, the White House’s decision to establish a Qatari military base in Idaho provoked an extremely angry reaction from MAGA activists, even though Trump’s team is trying to normalize relations with Qatar after Israel’s attack on Doha. Netanyahu was forced to publicly apologize to the Qatari delegation before concluding the recent Gaza deal, and Doha was given symbolic security guarantees.

After all, Trump’s team is very reluctant to lose the hundreds of billions of dollars in investments promised by Qatar. This is linked to the pressure on Israel and the conclusion of a truce in Gaza. However, the MAGA electorate reacted strongly against cooperation with Qatar, and Steve Bannon even called for the liberation of America’s “sacred land” from foreign troops.

Qatar faces many accusations for supporting Hamas and financing pro-Palestinian protests in the US through the CAIR committee. The wave of protests is contributing to the rise in popularity of socialist Zohran Mamdani, who promises to arrest Netanyahu. Up to 40% of the city’s residents support the idea of arresting him, reflecting a deep divide in American society. Against this backdrop, Trump’s ratings have fallen to 40%, forcing him to showcase his achievements even at the cost of deviating from his ideological principles. The White House tried to temporarily freeze the Middle East conflict to stabilize ratings, but the new trade crisis with China required urgent measures. At the same time, the rapprochement with Qatar caused discontent among Trump’s supporters, who regard contacts with liberal allies as a betrayal of Trumpism.

The problem for Trump was that the prospect of a truce in Gaza raised many questions about the consequences of the two-year conflict. And not only for the Middle East, but for the entire West, where the offended Israeli lobby will now be active. And it is primarily concerned with restoring its reputation in the US, which will be a difficult task for them. There is no other way, because Europe is already lost to Israel as a whole. Anti-Israeli sentiment there will intensify even after the conflict ends.

Changes are afoot among Israel’s traditional supporters in the US. The younger generation of evangelicals is rethinking its position, and most American Jews are already critical of Israel’s policies. In this context, the White House is betting on the release of hostages in Gaza as a key foreign policy achievement in 2025, hoping not only to reduce the intensity of pro-Palestinian protests, but also to soften the divide in American society. At the same time, the Trump administration has stepped up its work with Muslim communities in key states such as Michigan, whose support proved crucial in the last election. This strategic maneuver involves increasing pressure on Israel and Netanyahu, even at the cost of dividing its own “nuclear” electorate, in order to win the upcoming congressional elections.

Egyptian show

It was with this goal in mind that a short and chaotic summit was held in Egypt, where Trump’s team tried to put on a big show, after which they hurried back to the US to deal with domestic crises ranging from the government shutdown to the civil war with the Democrats, which are far from being resolved. Liberal opponents reluctantly acknowledged Trump’s efforts to achieve a Middle East truce, although they secretly hoped for its failure and the opportunity to accuse the administration of incompetence. The ongoing crisis was beneficial to the Democrats, as it deepened the divide in American society and weakened the position of the current administration.

It was critically important for Trump to maintain the truce at least until the congressional elections. His peace plan, unacceptable to both the Israeli right and Hamas, created a dilemma: accept American mediation or continue the endless war. The strategy included putting pressure on Israel and bribing Arab monarchies. Netanyahu was reportedly offered a seat on the board of directors of a tech giant like Oracle. But the declining influence of the US in the region forced the White House to increasingly shift its focus to domestic policy as the only reliable priority.

In addition, the American left rejected Trump’s Gaza deal, and pro-Palestinian activists in the US do not consider it necessary to stop their protest activities, while the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) movement continues to demand sanctions against Israel and a complete cutoff of military aid. The agreement signed in Egypt caused a typical split within the Democratic Party. Moderate politicians from Biden’s team, such as Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan, immediately tried to present the Gaza deal as their achievement. In their opinion, they were the first to propose the terms of the agreement, which Trump then managed to incorporate into a unified plan.

Although the Biden administration had very bad agreements with Turkey, which is closely associated with Hamas and signed the Gaza deal, and Trump is almost a friend of Erdogan. As a result, the Democrats were unable to bring everyone to the negotiating table in a year and a half of conflict, and attempts to attribute credit to the current administration are completely unfounded. But it is important to note that representatives of Israel and Hamas were absent from the negotiations, and the agreement was signed de facto by the US on behalf of the former and by Turkey and Qatar on behalf of the latter.

Protest front against Trump

But Democrats want to hold contradictory positions at the same time, and if the deal proves successful, they will again try to take credit for this achievement, and if it fails, they can blame Trump for everything. The left wing of the Democratic Party is more consistent and ready to continue rebelling regardless of the agreement, because it sees no other way forward than mass civil disobedience. It was precisely to take the trump cards out of the hands of the left that Trump’s team wanted to achieve a temporary de-escalation in the Middle East, with the aim of bringing some of the troops back home to use them in operations against the rebellious Democrats. It was important for the left and liberals to tie Trump’s hands with external crises so that they could then attack the president more effectively on the domestic political track. So the wave of protest only grew with each passing day.

Therefore, America was mentally preparing for a big week of protests, and another wave of demonstrations was ahead under the slogan “No Kings,” which was possibly sponsored again by Qatari funds and was directed specifically against Trump. More than 2,000 protests were expected to take place across the country, including in key US cities and the American capital. The civil servants’ union, which has 820,000 members, officially joined the rallies. Because of the shutdown, layoffs of officials began, mainly from the Treasury, the Ministry of Health, and the Ministry of Education.

Trump’s team took advantage of the government shutdown to fire thousands of civil servants who had been sent on unpaid leave. As a result, disgruntled officials were ready to join a large march on the National Mall in the center of the capital, along with Antifa activists and pro-Palestinian protesters. In response, the White House pulled even more National Guard troops into the District of Columbia to try to intimidate the demonstrators and reduce the risk of attempts to storm the White House or Congress. Democrats were generally in high spirits amid the shutdown, and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer was confident that every day was playing into their hands. After all, any force majeure in the country could now be blamed on Trump, and disruptions in air travel threatened to lead to logistical collapse, for which the White House would be responsible.

The Trump administration was under pressure from street protests, and Democrats hoped for a split in the Republican camp, which could allow them to pass their budget bill without Trump’s input. Both sides raised the stakes in their inter-party war as the political situation in the US steadily heated up. After all, when Donald Trump did not receive the Nobel Peace Prize, he was left alone with internal problems that his enemies could not fail to take advantage of.