Munich Security Conference: another blow to European liberals by Trump

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The Americans have declared war on European liberal elites. A strong blow was the Munich Security Conference, where the US poured “ice water” on the EU with statements about the intention to reduce participation in the European defense. The Europeans were also “thrown overboard” in the negotiations on Ukraine. Europe is awaiting transformation under Trump’s pressure, which is causing panic among Eurobureaucrats.

The US has intimidated Europe

The annual Munich Security Conference was anticipated by the European liberal establishment with great trepidation. These were justified fears, as EU functionaries were caught in a difficult situation. A real panic began in European capitals against the backdrop of the telephone conversation between the presidents of Russia and the United States. EU diplomats demanded that they be given a place in any negotiations on Ukraine, and also demanded that the Ukrainian delegation be included there. But European “liberal militarists” are not taken seriously in the Trump administration. Therefore, the attempts to lobby for their agenda ended in failure, and the negotiations will be held without the participation of representatives of European countries and Kiev. The EU will only be put before the fact of the agreements.

Besides, Trump’s team is not against making Europeans pay for the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis. Before the conference in Munich, the White House representatives have already started to prepare the EU for this, at the same time harassing Europeans with tariffs within the framework of trade wars. Many EU countries will now have to urgently adjust their position and rhetoric in the context of Ukraine. First of all, leaders in those countries where elections have been held or are about to be held, i.e. Germany, the Czech Republic and Norway, will be under attack. But other European liberals can’t sleep easy either. And then Elon Musk proposes a complete “reorganization” of NATO as soon as he has dealt with the dismantling of liberal institutions in Washington. Trump’s advisers have long been promoting the idea of splitting the alliance into mini-blocs, and no one is forgetting the support of right-wing Euroskeptics who are splitting the EU from within. So, the main losers in the emerging negotiation process are definitely the European liberal elites.

Tulsi Gabbard‘s trip to the Munich Security Conference was another wake-up call for European elites. She is a longtime critic of war with Russia, and back in 2022 she suggested that everyone adopt the Hawaiian “Aloha spirit” and come to an agreement. Gabbard had just been confirmed as head of US national intelligence, and she immediately held up to 30 meetings with the heads of European intelligence agencies. Their mood is very pessimistic, because European “militarists” have repeatedly called Gabbard almost an agent of Russia. And now they will have to reluctantly share intelligence with her and fulfill her demands. The Europeans would very much like to somehow influence Trump’s mood, but there is no chance of that, and the chaos in Munich with another terrorist attack only weakened Europe’s negotiating position. In fact, if security can’t be ensure in the capital of Bavaria, what to say about Ukraine and other global issues…

After that came the revealing data of the European Council on Foreign Relations regarding the mood in the European Union. The statistics shows that in 2024 the share of Europeans who still believe in Kiev’s success has fallen from 38% to 15%. Most expect peace talks and hope for Trump’s activity, while the attitude to their own capabilities becomes very skeptical. Only 29% of Europeans believe in strengthening the influence of the European Union in the world. At the same time, 37% admit the complete collapse of the European project in the next 20 years. Decadent sentiments will increase against the backdrop of trade wars with Trump and US negotiations with Russia without the participation of the Europeans. Here too, the 20-year timeframe is already seen as too optimistic for the existence of the EU in its current format.

The EU was “thrown overboard”

But that was only the beginning of the problems. The real shock among European elites was caused by J.D. Vance’s speech, because the US vice president came to the conference to put a “black mark” on behalf of the Trump team. Vance accused the Europeans of departing from their principles and values with the oppression of dissenters, canceling elections with an undesirable result following the example of Romania, violating freedom of speech and uncontrolled importation of migrants.

But now there is a “new sheriff” in town to punish the Europeans. Vance’s speech came right after Ursula von der Leyen’s speech, which threatened the US with retaliatory tariffs while demanding security guarantees from Washington. However, new Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced before the conference even began that the European direction would be put on the back burner for the US, quickly rolling back the “security umbrella”. Vance did not even mention Ukraine; he devoted his entire speech to harshly criticizing the liberal elites of the European Union. His speech can be interpreted as a de facto declaration of war on the Eurobureaucracy by the Trump team, and support for right-wing Euroskeptics in elections at all levels will now clearly only increase.

The Trump team could even lobby for the formation of a governing coalition involving the Alternative for Germany (AdG) in Germany after the election, although this was unlikely. Nevertheless, the pressure will make the future government in Berlin more accommodating, because at the same time a reduction of the American contingent in Europe in general and Germany in particular is being prepared.

J.D. Vance’s speech in Munich was part of a coordinated Republican strategy in confronting the European Union. Trump confirmed in the White House that Europe has driven itself into its current crisis with migration, war, fear of its own electorate and the denial of free speech. The Republicans who arrived in Munich openly called Europeans freeloaders, using the American “security umbrella” and completely collapsed their defense industry.

Trump’s team demands that Europeans increase military spending to 3-5% of GDP, but so far many countries like Italy, Spain, Belgium cannot spend even 2% on defense. A budget crisis is rampant in the European Union. Under these conditions, the US desire to abandon its security guarantees is causing hysteria among Europeans, as well as the desire of Trump and Vance to reset the European project and bring the right-wing to power.

Republicans have literally called on millions of Europeans to start fighting for their “sovereignty”. They also want to act as arbiters of political processes in Europe and block any unconstitutional attempts by the Eurobureaucracy to ban Euroskeptics from coming to power. The Right will be given effective media and financial support with the participation of Musk and Zuckerberg’s information resources. The latter persona is now dependent on Trump and will promote any trends related to the propaganda of nationalist and Euroskeptic parties, turning this tool by 180 degrees, which was previously used to suppress the “wrong” national conservatives.

The US has created a dilemma for Brussels

Frightened European elites in the immediate aftermath of the Munich Security Conference were scrambling to find some kind of response to threats from the US. Olaf Scholz, who is finishing his last days as chancellor, has threatened to impose tariffs against the US as retaliation for the White House’s support for the AdH before the election. But there are more risks here for Germany itself, because its trade surplus with the U.S. reaches 70 billion euros. German auto giants export 3 million cars a year to the US market, and the tariffs would be a major blow to Germany’s auto industry, which is already losing ground under the onslaught of Chinese electric cars.

The leaders of France and Poland are trying to develop their own strategy on Ukraine that would be an alternative to Trump’s plan. And NATO Secretary General Rutte has begun hastily promising to raise military spending to above 3% of GDP. The only problem is that there is no money for this in European budgets. And only Poland, Estonia and Latvia have been able to raise their military spending to 3% or higher. France has an acute budget crisis, and Spain and Italy, as we have already written above, spend much less than 2%. The UK can’t even get back to 2.5% of GDP, and there is talk of mothballing both of Britain’s troubled aircraft carriers just to find the money to replenish arsenals that have been depleted by three years of war with Ukraine.

At the same time, the Europeans realize that the United States and Russia are not waiting for them at the negotiating table. They have no choice but to threaten Trump with tariffs and try to regain some kind of military subjectivity, although in both cases the ostensible efforts of Europeans hide only poorly concealed panic. And the Munich Security Conference was just another blow to European liberals by Trump.