How Iran and Israel hit the U.S. Democratic Party

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The conflict in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, a group backed by Iran, has become one of the key events of 2024. We will pay attention to the “shadow” they cast on the U.S. presidential election. Iran and especially Israel, which has a vested interest in Trump’s election, have launched a “missile strike” against the Democratic Party and Kamala Harris.

Disagreements of the American establishment

The escalation in Lebanon has thwarted the White House’s latest attempts at “reconciliation” in the Middle East before the presidential election. Netanyahu, who initiated the new escalation, has directly damaged not only Lebanon but also the Democrats in the U.S., who are already in crisis, also because of the war in Gaza. The Democratic Party is now simultaneously losing the American Jewish and Arab-Muslim vote, and Trump’s approval rating among Jews has reached a record 40% for Republicans. At the same time, Harris is behind even non-system candidates like Jill Stein of the Greens in terms of Muslim support, and that could play a fatal role in states like Michigan, which has a large Muslim population.

Iranian rocket fire into Israel gave Washington a major scare on the eve of the upcoming debate between vice-presidential candidates J.D. Vance and Tim Walz. The topic of Middle East escalation overshadowed many issues and even neoconservatives and “militarists” like Lindsey Graham called for a strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure. In this context, Trump supporters simply accused Democrats of being weak and unwilling to help Israel.

Harris blamed everything that was going on the shoulders of “lame duck” Biden. Walz, on the other hand, had to spin to avoid discrediting the Democratic position altogether. He had to please center-left voters who support Israel and the “left wing” that comes out for pro-Palestinian protests although such “schizophrenia” didn’t look very presentable.

Vance is a strong supporter of Israel, but as an isolationist is against dragging the U.S. into Middle East wars. He even had to participate in them when he served in Iraq. However, it is unlikely that he will be able to broadcast an agenda of withdrawal from the Middle East amid the escalation that Trump and Vance may inherit from Biden. Yet Netanyahu has given them a propaganda gift with his aggression. After all, the Democrats are desperately hoping to maintain the status quo until after the election, but they are not very good at it. Therefore, the uncertainty may continue until the election. If it gets out of hand and the U.S. bases in the region with 40,000 military personnel are hit, it will throw the presidential campaign into chaos on the eve of Election Day.

Netanyahu is playing the “American card”

Against this background, the U.S. is increasing financial pressure on Israel to force it to “peace” before the elections. S&P and Moody’s simultaneously downgraded Israel’s credit rating, with Moody’s immediately downgrading it by two points: from A2 to Baa1. It will now be more difficult for Tel Aviv to borrow money, although Israel’s deficit and public debt are growing rapidly. With the beginning of the war in Gaza, the volume of borrowing doubled, and the current conflict will cost Israel at least $60-70 billion. In the event of a full-scale war with Hezbollah, Israel’s budget deficit could reach 9-10%, and the GDP decline would be about 3%. Many sectors of the economy, such as tourism, are already in crisis and feel the shortage of staff due to mobilization.

Nonetheless, Netanyahu is confident of victory on all fronts. He was able to secure $8 billion in military tranches from the U.S., and for the first time in a year, he has surpassed his main rivals, including Democratic protégé Benny Gantz. Netanyahu is skillfully manipulating the U.S. elections, putting the Democrats in a very awkward position. They already have a split electorate, and then there is the threat of a big war. Netanyahu has gone all-in, betting on Trump’s victory, even though he also has strained relations with him. But Netanyahu is confident that the Republicans will be able to reach an agreement, and that’s why he is helping to “destroy” the Harris campaign.

Washington’s ambiguous position

This is why the White House is unofficially demanding that Netanyahu refrain from a serious response to the rocket fire on Israel. Especially on Israel’s list of proposed initiatives is something that could lead to an uncontrollable escalation before the elections. These are strikes on Iran’s oil or nuclear infrastructure, as well as pinpoint attacks on missile silos. In such a case, Iran will continue to strike Israel and it will become increasingly difficult to contain them. Damage to oil infrastructure would also cause fuel prices to skyrocket, driving the U.S. economy into recession on the very eve of the vote. There is already an acute logistical crisis in America amid the strike of 45 000 port workers, all major ports on the Atlantic coast of the United States have stopped functioning. Harris’ staff was forced to support the workers’ demands for an 80% wage increase. In reality, this is unlikely to happen, but it is unacceptable for the Democrats to lose the votes of the working class.

Against this background, another scandal erupted when Harris’s husband Doug Emhoff, who likes to appear as a kind of “feminist”, was accused of beating his ex-girlfriend. Moreover, earlier he has already become a figurehead of the scandal, when he had an affair with the nanny of his children and it broke her life. However, Biden’s team has limited opportunities to influence all crisis processes inside and outside the United States. They are floundering from side to side, not knowing what to do. They need to somehow hold on for another month before the elections, because the Republicans are trying to seize the initiative after the successful debate between Vance and Walz. And any force majeure only plays into Trump’s hands, while the Israeli authorities are taking advantage of that.

Democrats have already openly rushed to accuse Netanyahu of trying to influence the outcome of the elections in the United States. Thus, the head of the Committee on Internal Security and Senator Chris Murphy incriminated the leadership of Israel in undermining the position of Harris and the Democrats in the election race. Biden is already bickering with Netanyahu in phone calls, but it has no effect on Israeli policy.

*Photo by Marek Studzinski / U*nsplash.com

Netanyahu is taking advantage of the period of de facto powerlessness in Washington, when the influence of Biden’s team has been minimized, and it can in principle be put to no purpose. The Democrats’ attitude toward Israel, already not the best, has changed dramatically for the worse. About half of Democratic voters no longer view Israel as a U.S. ally with similar values. At the same time, only 24% of Americans see the need to give unlimited military tranches to Israel, while most demand an early cease-fire. Republicans remain warm toward Israel. 60% of Republicans favor reducing the U.S. military presence in the Middle East, as well as the rest of the world. Trump, though sympathetic to Israel, is focused on the isolationists in his electorate and inner circle.

However, Netanyahu is betting on a Trump victory. This correlates with the opinion of the people of Israel, when 58% of them would vote for Trump. Netanyahu’s ratings have gone up a lot lately, and the Democrats are having a lot of trouble splitting their electorate. That’s why they are irritated about Netanyahu’s actions, but they can’t do anything about it. For him, this is part of the battle for both himself and his country, and he is unlikely to back down. He will continue to play a “bloody game” with Iran, one of the goals of which is to hit Washington.