Heading for St. Petersburg: NATO uses the Baltics to attack Russia

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The U.S. may authorize NATO to attack Russia across its northwestern borders with the alliance’s contingent in the Baltics. For the current government in Washington, this is the only way to avoid global geopolitical change, preserve the status quo and its influence.

The “Ukrainian Trigger” as the Democrats’ salvation

Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election marks a significant change in U.S. foreign policy. The Republican is focused on the peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian conflict and normalizing relations with Russia, restructuring NATO and reorienting the country’s resources to confront China.

But this position threatens the geopolitical and financial interests of the Democratic Party establishment. Therefore, the Democrats are using the remaining time before the inauguration of the new president to undermine Trump’s plans and aggravate relations with Moscow. The main emphasis will be placed on escalating the Ukrainian conflict and dragging Russia into a new war. It is important for the Democrats to create such conditions under which Moscow will not make concessions because of image and geopolitical losses, and peace talks on any issues will be excluded.

The Democrats have already begun to implement the plan and have taken the following steps.

Washington has approved the use of ATACMS long-range surface-to-surface missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers to strike Russia. For now, this applies to the Kursk region. But Joe Biden made a caveat that in the future it may be allowed to hit any point in the Russian Federation. The media agenda indicates that the U.S. is holding talks with allies. Earlier, Le Monde wrote about British and French approval of Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles. Although the article was later removed, it is already possible to predict the existence of an informal agreement of London and Paris, only a matter of time for the appearance of an official statement of the authorities. Germany may also soon reconsider its position on Taurus missiles with a range of 500 kilometers. Ukraine has already used the authorization. On November 19, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, and on November 21, they used Storm Shadow missiles to strike the Kursk region. In response, Russia used a new medium-range Oreshnik ballistic missile to strike an industrial facility in Dnipro. Also, Russian President Vladimir Putin amended Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Now aggression against the Russian Federation or its allies by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state will be considered as their joint attack. Washington’s actions have reduced the chances of a peaceful resolution.
The U.S. has activated NATO to initiate a new conflict, whose leadership also does not support Trump’s position on Ukraine and the further work of the military bloc. After the election, the rhetoric of the military changed from moderate to aggressive. If earlier the alliance spoke more about “containing the Russian threat”, today they openly talk about the need for preventive strikes on Russian territory. Rob Bauer, Chair of the NATO Military Committee, announced that plans were being developed to launch “precision strikes” in the event of a Russian attack. In this context, the activation of U.S. satellite countries in the Baltics is noteworthy. Thus, the head of the Estonian General Staff and General Vahur Carus also stated the need for strikes against Russia, including an invasion of the Pskov and Leningrad regions to threaten St. Petersburg. Andrus Merilo, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, has said that Finland and Estonia should develop a concrete plan to blockade the Russian fleet in the Gulf of Finland. At the recent Defending Baltics conference, Poland and the Baltic states discussed joint actions in the event of an attack on Lithuania. At the time, former Polish General Staff chief Raimund Andrzejczak claimed that the Baltics had a plan to launch a military strike against Russia and attack St. Petersburg. However, Moscow has repeatedly stated that it is not interested in a military confrontation with NATO and has no plans to attack the Baltics. This is logical, since Russia is stuck in a conflict with Ukraine and has complications in Syria and a number of neighboring countries. It is absurd to start new conflicts under such conditions. Therefore, the military statements can rather be perceived as the alliance’s readiness for an independent offensive, but they are simply presented under a propaganda-alarmist sauce for the Western audience.

NATO’s attack on Russia is a reality

The aggressive rhetoric of the Western military and NATO leadership correlates with the saturation of equipment and soldiers at bases in the Baltic states, as well as increased activity near Russia’s northwestern borders. At the moment, the number of NATO military contingent in this area exceeds 7,500 people. More than 130 combat aircraft of NATO air group, dozens of AH-64 helicopters, tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and missile systems are based near Russia’s borders. NATO aviation regularly conducts aerial reconnaissance of the borders of Russia and Belarus.

Under NATO’s supervision, the Baltics are actively militarizing, building huge training grounds and expanding old ones, as well as building bases. For example, now in Latvia they are building a giant firing range on the border of Aizkraukle and Jēkabpils municipalities. The area of the range will be 24,540 hectares, for comparison, the area of Riga is 30,720 hectares. There will also be a military base for 1,700 people and sites for equipment, including aircraft. A volunteer brigade of the Bundeswehr is being formed in Lithuania to be permanently based there. For the needs of the brigade in Rūdninkai they are creating a “polygon city” for practicing battles, areas for training with small arms and anti-tank weapons, and an artillery range. Closer to the Russian borders, warehouses for equipment and fuel are being built, as well as various engineering compounds.

In recent years, exercises have been held virtually every month involving all types of troops of the Baltic states. And the emphasis is on the northwestern borders of the Russian Federation. For example, in September, the Siaures krantai 2024 exercise was held in the Baltic Sea, in which nine countries, including Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, took part. Crews practiced surface and underwater combat, air defense and firing at coastal targets. The only enemy territories the Baltics have in the Baltic Sea for “coastal firing” are the territories of Kaliningrad, the Leningrad Region and St. Petersburg. In October, Steadfast Noon 2024, an exercise on the use of nuclear weapons, was held in Europe using aircraft from Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK and Denmark.

Politicians said that the exercises were not related to the political situation in the world. However, last year during similar nuclear exercises, a B-52 strategic bomber was spotted 200 kilometers from St. Petersburg, practicing the exit to the position for an attack. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of a nuclear exercise now. It is important that the entire military infrastructure of the Baltic states is used for regular exercises, operational and combat training of NATO units and units united with the armies of the countries.

Strategic bomber B-52
*Photo by Steve Harvey / Unsplash.com*

They are always presented as “strengthening of interaction between military units of the alliance countries”, but the scenario in the vast majority of cases always implies tactical, strategic or nuclear strikes on military facilities, including enemy cities. And NATO’s main enemies near the Baltics are Belarus and Russia. In November, the first full-scale exercise of the NATO multinational brigade Resolute Warrior 2024 took place in Latvia. The exercise tested the ability of units to conduct operations with the integration of all subordinate and auxiliary units when confronted with the enemy. Latvia’s enemy is close by – the country borders the Pskov region, behind which are strategically important St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region. From December 2 to 15, Estonia will hold the Pikne exercise, where 2,000 military personnel from Great Britain, Latvia, the United States, France and Estonia will practice troop deployment to the “conflict zone”. The information agenda clearly indicates that NATO has already prepared a springboard for an attack on Russia – the Baltics.

Why St. Petersburg?

The North Atlantic Alliance has concentrated its forces near Russia’s northwestern borders and is focusing on St. Petersburg for a reason.

*Photo by Julia Zyablova / Unsplash.com*

It is impossible to attack Russia from the south, as the country borders Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and other countries where NATO does not have sufficient military contingents and the necessary infrastructure. In addition, these countries will not agree to the transfer of troops because they do not want to enter into an open military confrontation with Russia. An attack from the southwest would be complicated by the concentration of a large number of Russian forces due to the military confrontation in Ukraine. An attack from the northern direction is inadvisable due to the large maritime border. It will require the transfer of warships in large numbers, and this is a long and noticeable process. In addition, there are risks of heavy losses, as the borders are guarded by the Pacific Fleet and the Northern Fleet of Russia, which is considered the strongest link of the Russian Navy due to the large number of submarines (41 units, 60% of the total number) and 38 warships (18%). The northwestern borders are the only area where NATO has enough forces accumulated for a quick attack from sea and land.

The focus on St. Petersburg is due to the city’s status. The northern capital is one of Russia’s largest logistics hubs because of its developed port and railroad infrastructure connected to many regions of the country. The city is home to the bases of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy, the destruction of which is important for the control of the Baltic Sea. St. Petersburg is home to more than 100 factories involved in the military-industrial complex, including those producing strategically important weapons and building ships. For example, MZ Arsenal produces universal artillery and missile launchers for the Navy, and Severnye Verfi builds ships. NPO Zavod Volna produces REB systems, automated jamming stations and other devices without which it is impossible to counter modern Western equipment. VKO Almaz-Antey develops and produces air defense systems. Obukhov Plant manufactures command centers for the Strategic Missile Forces, communications equipment, missiles and other products. Capturing or destroying St. Petersburg would destroy many logistical chains, deprive Russia of part of its maritime trade routes, and deprive the army of weapons.

How will the war start?

In the current realities, we can predict several scenarios for NATO’s initiation of a military conflict with Russia.

The first is the conversion of exercises into an offensive. In the Baltics, military maneuvers often take place almost adjacent to the Russian border. This is the best way to bring large numbers of troops into attack position. NATO is likely to use naval and ground components to simultaneously suppress Russia’s A2\AD zone in Kaliningrad. The attack on the Russian enclave is connected with the need to ensure the safety of NATO’s rear and overflight of NATO aircraft over Europe. And this cannot be done without the destruction of air defense forces and units with operational-tactical missile systems in Kaliningrad. Then the forces available in the Baltics will be enough to realize the “blitzkrieg tactics” with the destruction of air defense and missile defense forces in the northwestern direction. This will make it possible to use aviation and missile systems to bomb cities. Russia is unlikely to have time in such a case to bring in additional troops for defense. Moscow is now focusing its attention and forces on the regions bordering Ukraine. As a result, the West will have the opportunity to open another front and hit Russian forces to the south to help Ukraine. The use of such a strategy could be mocked by the West. In 2022, Russia did the same thing when an exercise near Ukraine’s borders turned into an offensive.

The second is provocation. NATO has the perfect way to create a conflict situation and turn it into a war. Earlier we noted that Estonia is considering the possibility of blocking the Russian fleet in the Gulf of Finland. The geographical position of Estonia and Finland can be used for this purpose. In the part of the Gulf, the borders of the two countries overlap, there are no neutral waters there. Earlier the possibility of creating a six-mile corridor for the passage of ships was discussed. But due to Finland’s accession to NATO and the aggravation of the geopolitical situation, the countries abandoned the idea. As a result, the Baltic states have the opportunity to block all Russian ports in the Baltic. They will not be able to violate the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which allows ships to go to sea, but they will have the right to detain all merchant ships in their territorial waters. And this will stop the export of goods and oil, which almost entirely goes through the Baltic. Blocking ships is unfriendly, which Moscow will not be able to ignore, and any response will untie NATO’s hands. Also, Finland or Estonia may consider an accidental entry of a passing warship into their territorial waters as an attack.

The third is staging. In one of the Baltic states, NATO could stage an explosion at an important infrastructure facility, in a peaceful zone or a military unit near the Russian border. At the same time, photo and video footage will be organized to prove Russia’s involvement, followed by accusations of attacking a NATO member country and launching an offensive. The West has a lot of experience in staging. We can recall Powell’s Test Tube, which led to the invasion of Iraq; the staging of the White Helmets in Syria, which provided the pretext for U.S. missile attacks; and the staging of the Bucha casualties, which led to the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict and sanctions.

In conclusion, we note that a NATO attack on Russia is a matter of time. Much will depend on the military situation in Ukraine, the speed of political processes inside the U.S. and Moscow’s reaction to them.