European Parliament elections 2024: a big fear for liberals in Brussels

Now the bright successes of Euroskeptics and nationalists in the elections to the European Parliament have become a fact, but back in the spring, right after the start of the election campaign for the European Parliament, it was going rather strangely, which was connected with the fear of the liberal establishment before the left, and especially the right-wing Euroskeptics. In Germany, Scholz suddenly started scaring his voters that right-wing Euroskeptics would jeopardize the “prosperity” of the European Union and some dubious values of “united Europe” if they won. It was very entertaining to hear this from the leader of Germany, which has driven its own economy into recession with the fall of real incomes of Germans to the level of 2015 and deindustrialization.

And in general, the European Union, which is sinking into recession, does not resemble some “blooming garden” at all. Europe is terribly divided against the backdrop of its economic and the war in Ukraine, which is unclear in its goals. Meanwhile, in France, Macron is campaigning on a militarist platform with inarticulate swings around the idea of sending troops to Ukraine, and he has only served to damage the prospects of his party, which has fallen further and further behind Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National in the European Parliament elections, and risks losing even to Jean-Luc Melenchon’s leftists. Viktor Orbán, on the other hand, was calling for a declaration of war on the Euro-bureaucracy, and he supported the farmer protests that had paralyzed Brussels.

Orban hoped for a successful result for the right-wing in the June elections, after which he could launch a counteroffensive on the political front and crush the weakened Eurobureaucracy on all fronts. Euroskeptics expected to win up to a third of the seats in the European Parliament, and although this was a very optimistic view, the worse things get in Europe, where the former “blossoming prosperity” is a thing of the past, the more people will be willing to openly fight against the European bureaucracy, which has driven the whole continent into permanent crisis. This means that the ratings of the non-systemic right and left will also grow.

And the liberal Eurobureaucracy with its migration policy only contributes to the growth of right-wing nationalism. For example, recently Brussels pushed through a large-scale migration reform, which the Eurobureaucrats have been preparing for 9 years, and which threatens to split and destabilize the European Union, already weakened by internal crises. Now, if EU members refuse to accept migrants, they will have to pay “compensation” of €20 thousand for each illegal immigrant. This is a huge blow to small and poor countries of Eastern Europe, such as Hungary or Poland, and now they will be forced to pay the Eurobureaucracy if they do not want to “culturally enrich themselves” with the reception of crowds of illegal immigrants, as well as to follow the very values of “united Europe”.

In 2023, the inflow of migrants to the EU exceeded 2.5 million, and more than 1 million of them are seeking asylum, and these are mostly Arabs and Afghans. The flow of refugees will only grow amid instability in the Middle East. It is already becoming a record since the Syrian migration crisis in 2015, not counting the 6-7 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe. The adopted reform will be a boon for liberal NGOs that bring migrants to Europe en masse. It will be much harder to control them now. Criminal syndicates, including the same Albanian mafia, which earn billions of euros annually from human trafficking, will also benefit. At the same time, the migration reform was pushed through on the very eve of elections. And now the Eurobureaucracy, which is beginning to receive a response from “grateful voters” for the importation of migrants, economic and civilizational crisis, will be in trouble.

The foreign policy situation in the EU did not save the liberals either, and this was not at all about the war in Ukraine, which for Eurobureaucrats has long since turned into a conflict over their own image. Thus, Olaf Scholz’s visit to China was no less a failure than the recent trip of American Janet Yellen. They both tried hard to persuade China to stop “overproduction” of its goods. Simply because neither Europeans nor Americans can keep up with China’s competitive race.

However, there was also an economic side to the failure, and Xi Jinping, in response to all of Scholz’s appeals, promised the European Union a sharp rise in inflation if it rejected Chinese products. Germany, on the other hand, has been put in a position of difficult choice, because more than 5,000 German companies continue to operate in China, and their withdrawal from the Chinese market will kill the German economy, which is already in recession. At the same time, the Chinese economy, which also has enough problems, grew by 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024, and for China the development of electric cars is becoming one of the key points of growth. They have already taken 60% of the global market, displacing the American Tesla. And the Chinese car industry is rapidly squeezing the Germans even in their native European market.

The share of Chinese electric cars in the European Union may reach 25% in the coming years, and China is actively building new car plants in Hungary, right under the nose of Germany. The trade turnover between China and Germany continues to fall amid the crisis of the German economy. For example, imports from China are down by as much as 20% in 2023. This explains the lack of interest in Scholz’s visit, which represents a stagnant, half-dead economy. China, on the other hand, will soon launch new government programs to stimulate demand for its auto industry. And it will occupy European markets even more actively, taking advantage of Germany’s rapid deindustrialization. And this situation is actively felt by the voters in the EU, blaming liberals for this situation.

That is why the fear of right-wing Euroskeptics is turning into a real phobia, and in Brussels there was a triumph of real “European democracy”, which, as many have already realized, is the power of democrats and liberals, and nothing else. On April 16, the authorities of the Belgian capital and the European Union engaged the police in an attempt to disrupt the National Conservatism Conference (NatCon). It is becoming the European equivalent of the American Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), which has been held since 1974. Whereas CPAC brings together the American right-wing annually, NatCon, National Conservatism, brings together specifically the right-wing in Europe.

The first conferences were held in the UK, and now nationalists and conservatives have tried to hold the event in the capital of continental Europe, but it has not been easy. First, two venues in Brussels refused to accept participants at the very last moment. The organizers eventually found a third, and it was proposed by an immigrant from Tunisia, who, however, is not against the right-wing, but he immediately started receiving threatening phone calls from the Brussels City Hall. And then the representative of the mayor’s office, Emir Kir, a Turk, called the police, who stormed the hall in the middle of the event and disrupted the speakers’ speech.

Nigel Farage, leader of Britain Reform Party, was forced off the stage, and Éric Zemmour, a popular right-winger in France, was prevented from entering the hall. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was scheduled to speak at the event, but he ended up not making it to the hall either for suspicious reasons, probably knowing in advance of the police raid. Brussels City Hall explains its police operation by the fear of the growth of “ultra-right” sentiments, so for the sake of “saving democracy” it is necessary to cancel this democracy. Well, for the right-wing, the violent dispersal of their event became the best advertising, and now the whole world has learned about the NatCon conference. And this only strengthened the positions of the Right in the elections to the European Parliament, where they can seriously strengthen their positions.

The Eurobureaucrats were preparing morally for the June elections, realizing in advance that liberal and socialist centrist parties of all kinds would win far fewer seats. It was also well understood that the right-wing Euroskeptics, who could win many seats by taking them away from the Liberals and Greens, would be sharply strengthened. This aggravated the crisis of the entire EU governance system, for example, the election of the head of the European Commission. Usually it is a routine procedure and the candidate from the largest bloc of parties is always chosen, and this candidate is Ursula von der Leyen, who went for a second term, although she has a low personal rating.

The European Commission itself has found itself in a traditional France-Germany split, and Thierry Breton, a protege of Emmanuel Macron, is constantly interfering with von der Leyen’s work. The French in the European Parliament, even before the election, threatened to vote against the German’s re-election for a second term, and they were joined by Hungary and many right-wing parties from different countries, even though it was a tactical alliance for them. Together they could have succeeded in blocking the approval of the next European Commission indefinitely, but so far the German has retained her post and they are simply demanding meaningful concessions from von der Leyen.

So, the coming summer promises to be very dynamic in Brussels amid the crisis and large-scale protests. The task of the Right is to tighten control over migration and return powers to the level of national governments, taking them away from Brussels. Strengthening the right will allow Hungary and Slovakia, which they want to turn into European pariahs, to be brought out of isolation. The Eurobureaucracy will definitely resist this, so the split in Brussels will only intensify. And Trump’s presidency is also likely to be ahead, and he will be pushing the EU very hard, using right-wing Euroskeptics as his allies.

Let us imagine that it is November 7, 2024, and Trump is declared the winner of the U.S. presidential race. He first announces his desire to start negotiations with Russia on the partition of Ukraine, and immediately threatens Brussels with the introduction of prohibitive tariffs on European imports. Trump has already repeatedly told his entourage that he does not consider Ukraine an independent state and sees it as part of historic Russia. This comes as a real shock to the “militarists” in Brussels, as does Trump’s desire to reform or even divide NATO into mini-blocs. Eurobureaucrats are morally preparing for a new round of trade wars. Trump has already promised to raise tariffs on imports from Europe to 15%, and he can use the export of hydrocarbons from the United States as a lever of pressure on Europeans dependent on American energy.

Moreover, Trump will work with each country separately. For example, Hungary, which has a working relationship with Trump, will avoid tariffs, but liberal Germany will be attacked with special zeal. Trump will take advantage of the crisis in the European economy to beat it down even harder, and one can only imagine what a disaster it would be for the Eurobureaucrats to cut off shale gas supplies from the United States. Against the backdrop of the sanctions wars, this will be the final nail in the coffin of European industry, and Germany is already predicting the deindustrialization of Europe. This would be a real triumph of the “green agenda” over its own economy and common sense, and a powerful trigger for the deconstruction of the entire European Union.

After the “failure” in Brussels, the CPAC gathered in Budapest. European right-wingers take an example from the U.S., and now regularly hold their meetings, although so long ago an attempt to organize the National Conservatism Conference in Brussels ended in a complete fiasco, when Brussels sicced the police on the participants. But Euroskeptics immediately reconvened in Hungary, and Viktor Orbán became the main organizer of the event. He stated the crisis of liberal hegemony, which has brought war and chaos to Europe. Orbán called for building a new world order based on the sovereignty of nation-states in opposition to the globalists.

The European Right coined a new term for the Brussels bureaucracy – “Bolshewoke,” a mix of Bolsheviks and adherents of racial-gender “Woke”. They put forward a unified platform for the soon-to-be-elected European Parliament, which includes the pursuit of peace against war, defense of their own borders against migrants, and support for traditional values and European identity. In addition to the Europeans, Trump allies Vivek Ramaswamy and Kari Lake, observers from the United States, also stopped by the conservative conference. Ramaswamy may get a post in the Trump administration, while Lake is running for senator from Arizona. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, a critic of the European Union, was also there.

The right-wing won up to 50 additional seats in the European Parliament elections, and while this is not the most optimistic scenario for them, their position will strengthen one way or another. That’s why they are building bridges with Trump, hoping to create a united anti-globalization front to jointly attack the liberal elites in Washington and Brussels. And it won’t be long before we find out whether their plan has come to fruition and whether the liberals’ fears were correct.

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ed@mercenaries.media

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