EU problems after Trump’s election continue

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The election of the Republican candidate for the U.S. presidency came as a shock to liberals in the EU. Now they are panicking, calculating the losses to themselves of the upcoming trade war, preparing for political changes and thinking how to fight Donald Trump.

The U.S. will intensify the EU’s economic problems

Germany’s economy, which is already in crisis, could lose 1% of its GDP. The worst off will be export-oriented sectors like the automobile industry. Germany already produces 25% fewer cars than it did before the pandemic. In addition, Chinese automakers are squeezing the Germans out of their market and taking over Europe in defiance of tariffs. Trump also want to hit the Europeans with his tariffs of 15-20% and higher.

Back in 2017, Trump talked about his dream: to walk around Berlin and see only American cars. He has long held a grudge against the Germans, and because of the $150 billion trade surplus with the U.S., the impact of U.S. tariffs on the EU will be severe.

Brussels is responding by threatening to hit states that voted for Trump, and European officials want to impose retaliatory tariffs on imports of U.S. motorcycles, motorboats, whiskey and lobster. In one hand, the effect on the U.S. won’t be as severe as that of a trade war with China. On the other hand, for Europe the loss of the “fat” American market in the current crisis conditions could be fatal and this is not to mention radical scenarios like cutting off oil and gas supplies, which would lead to the collapse of the European economy. Brussels will not be envious, and the Eurobureaucrats will face a three-front war with the United States, China and Russia.

Washington will bet on Euroskeptics

Trump will support non-systemic forces and Euroskeptics, destroying the European liberal system from within. The success of the Republicans in the U.S. elections has already emboldened right-wing non-systemic forces across Europe. In the first elections held after Trump’s election in Romania, right-wing Euroskeptics won the first round of the Romanian presidential election, which the establishment later canceled in fear. They campaigned with an agenda of protectionism, protection of farmers in contrast to Brussels’ “green dictate”, and withdrawal of support for Ukraine, which was pure “Trumpism”. The Romanian rightists also criticize the deployment of NATO logistics bases in their country, fearing that the country will become a target for Russia’s nuclear missiles.

Eurosceptics in Romania, as in the whole Europe, are actively using TikTok and attracting young people to their side. This effect can be observed on both sides of the Atlantic. In the U.S., too, a record proportion of the post-1998 generation of Zoomers voted for Trump. In recent elections, Zoomers voted heavily right-wing in Germany and France. In the UK, fewer than 2 million people have already signed a petition demanding an early election. Labor has managed to turn the entire country upside down in a few months, fighting with farmers, oppressing the population with taxes and pursuing an ill-conceived foreign policy. The rise in popularity of Euroskeptics will continue, and economic depression and fatigue with rampant populism and militarism are only contributing to this.

Trump has wreaked havoc on the Ukrainian conflict

Against the backdrop of Trump’s policies, European populist-militarists are trying to figure out how they can wage war in Ukraine without U.S. support. U.S. tranches account for a significant portion of all missiles that go to Ukraine, and it is virtually impossible to replace this with European supplies. A year ago, the Euro bureaucrats with pathos promised to produce 2 million 155-mm shells a year, but now the EU output barely reaches half a million annually. There was hope for the South Koreans, but they refused to allocate tranches to Kiev, fearing an escalation with North Korea and simply showing mercantilism.

There is an even more acute problem with the depletion of artillery reserves, and the UK has almost none left. It takes many years to produce Norwegian NASAMS air defense systems to replace those already destroyed in Ukraine, and Hungary has just started receiving NASAMS ordered five or six years ago. Taiwan has ordered five more NASAMS, but it will receive them in the very distant future.

In addition, many EU countries are experiencing budgetary and political crises and it is precisely at this critical moment that Trump is going to blackmail Europeans with tariffs, while shifting responsibility for Ukraine onto their shoulders. Because of this, the ground is burning under the feet of the Eurobureaucracy, and the far-right partners of the new U.S. president in Europe are rejoicing.

Democratic NGOs are facing budget cuts

In this context, Viktor Orbán continues to play the role of Trump’s unofficial emissary in the international arena. He recently visited Georgia, where he publicly supported the ruling party that won the recent elections and advised it to ignore criticism from the European Union and the U.S. Democratic administration. Washington was then mired in internal strife a week before the election. Therefore, the reaction of the outgoing Biden administration to the Georgian elections was rather sluggish, and the escalation of protests began much later. There was a long period of political instability in the U.S. and the Georgian authorities were obviously trying to look for ways to reach out to the Trump team. It is not for nothing that current Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze spoke in the spring at CPAC, a gathering of American and European right-wingers in Budapest, where a group of Trump supporters from the United States was also present.

Euroskeptics in the European Union, including Orbán, are also hoping for Trump’s support in their war with Brussels. On his side Trump, as it was during his first term, will try to cut the budgets of all structures like USAID or NED, which are close to the Democratic Party. NGOs under their care all over the world will immediately be in a difficult financial situation. In addition, after Trump’s victory, liberal NGOs in the U.S. rushed into battle against the new administration, and the change of regime in Washington will force Alexander Soros to shift the focus of attention to the U.S., where he is already sponsoring protests. Georgia, like many countries, will benefit from this, as right-wingers and nationalists are trying to negotiate with Trump through Orbán, bypassing liberals in Washington and Brussels.

*Photo by* *Celal Gunes/ Anadolu Agency*

European pragmatists are seizing the initiative

Viktor Orbán met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago late last year and for the third time the Ukrainian conflict was on the agenda. In March 2024, Orbán linked his position on Ukraine to Trump’s views and promised Kiev’s lobbyists to cut off any new tranches after the U.S. election. Orbán had a big tour in July visiting Russia, China and then Mar-a-Lago, and it involved clarifying the positions of all sides. As we wrote above, Orbán has now become the de facto main liaison to Trump in Europe, a member of the 47th U.S. president’s team. Trump can’t stand the Eurobureaucracy in Brussels, and his attitude to “lame ducks” like Macron is also negative, and it has surely worsened after Macron’s attempts to “secretly” organize negotiations on Ukraine together with Zelensky.

Ukrainian lobbyists are in a state of high anxiety right now, trying to find a way out amid the failure of negotiations with Trump. They are now actively seeking contact with authorities in Germany in the person of CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who can at least somehow compensate for the probable reduction of American aid. But military arsenals in Europe are already empty after two years of war with Russia and the idea of spending more money on Ukraine is unpopular. So an attempt by Zelensky’s office to continue the war to blackmail Trump at the expense of European “militarists” will be a definite failure. And, given the split in Europe and the activity of Euroskeptics like Orbán, it will aggravate the political crisis of the European Union, which would benefit Trump in the long run.

At the same time, frightened liberal bureaucracies on both sides of the Atlantic are trying to figure out how to protect themselves from Trump, who has put the topic of U.S. withdrawal from NATO back on the agenda. Back in 2023, a law was passed to prohibit canceling NATO membership without congressional approval. But in reality, according to the U.S. constitution, the president has the final say in foreign policy matters. In addition, Trump could simply begin withdrawing U.S. troops from Europe and block the work of NATO’s military command, which is subordinate to the Pentagon. This would de facto put an end to the future of the alliance, and after the U.S., other countries that were there only for the sake of the U.S. security umbrella would start leaving NATO. And now Trump is demanding that they pay for their own defense, and they are not ready for that.

*Photo by Marek Studzinski / Unsplash.com*

The Eurobureaucracy in Brussels, in response to Trump’s threats, is once again promoting the idea of creating a separate pan-European army outside NATO. But no one wants to pay for it, and almost all EU countries have no money even for more important social projects. Another consolidation of resources in Brussels will only strengthen the positions of Euroskeptics and critics of unrestrained destructive liberalism. The topic of withdrawal from NATO will be used more as a lever of pressure but if Trump’s conflict with the European establishment gains momentum, anything can happen, up to and including the collapse of NATO, which Trump treats without any piety.

Europe is facing a demographic crisis

The number of births in 2023 set another anti-record of 3.6 million. This is the lowest value since counting began in 1960. The birth rate is affected by economic depression, fears of future military conflicts and divisions in society. In addition, in 2023, for the first time, the population of the European Union began to decline, it decreased from 453 to 448 million, and this is taking into account the influx of 2.5 million people. The number of newborns in France and Spain fell to a post-war minimum, Greece – to a 90-year minimum, in Italy – for the entire history after unification in 1861, and in Finland – to the level of 1771.

Native Europeans are being replaced by migrants, mainly from Africa, the Middle East and Afghanistan. This does not save the situation, and the working population is also declining, while businesses cannot find employees. There is no way out of the demographic crisis in sight, and it is leading the continent to decline. The situation is slightly better overseas, but there is a decline in the birth rate here too. The total number of births in the U.S. has fallen to the level of 1979, when the American population was 100 million smaller. The U.S. population is growing only due to uncontrolled immigration. The share of white Americans has decreased from 62% to 57% in 10 years, and the decline in the birth rate, coupled with the rise in mortality due to the opioid crisis, has already led to a record drop in life expectancy. Trump will try to limit the influx of migrants, and this will create new demographic challenges.

Well, even the constant influx of migrants is no longer helping Europe; European politicians still cling to liberal values and believe that Trump can disrupt the idyll that has long since disappeared with his “ultra-right fascism.” The U.S. president, in alliance with his European like-minded people, such as Orbán, is ready to give this liberal establishment a decisive battle.