Elon Musk writes about reconciliation in Ukraine, but thinks about elections in the U.S.

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On October 3, Elon Musk began to post a series of messages on his Twitter account about the conflict in Ukraine and ways to resolve it peacefully. Musk’s plan consisted of four points: re-voting in the annexed regions under UN supervision, keeping Crimea as a formal part of Russia, as it had been since 1783 (before Khrushchev’s mistake), guarantees of water supply for the peninsula, and a neutral status for Ukraine. Musk also added that this is highly likely to be the outcome in the end, and the only question is how many people will die before then. Subsequently, he also posted a map of the 2012 Ukrainian elections, where it was noticeable that the country was electorally divided into a pro-Russian East and a national Ukrainian West. He explained that it is not guaranteed that all of these people would want to be part of Russia, but there is a good chance that they might want to. The third message was a vote on whether residents of Crimea and Donbass have the right to choose their own future between Russia and Ukraine.

These messages from Musk provoked extremely negative reactions from the Ukrainian audience, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the odious former Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andrij Melnyk. Despite the objectives needed for discussion on these issues, the extreme aggression on the part of the Ukrainian authorities and speakers demonstrates the excessive radicalization that has engulfed Ukraine. There are a number of theses in Musk’s proposal that are hardly debatable for any adequate person. These concerns embrace both the view of political objective and ethnic reasons regarding the Ukrainian conflict, which are not reducible to the unilateral Russian aggression, and the right of citizens to self-determination through a referendum. But a far more important aspect of these Twitter postings is not the fate of Ukraine, but the future of the United States and to be even more specific, they have a direct effect on the U.S. presidential election in 2024.

Right now, the main potential Republican candidate is former president Donald Trump. He remains an extremely popular figure among Republican voters, but that is what makes him a prime target for attacks by Democratic opponents. Since the search of his Florida estate in August, he continues to face allegations of illegal possession of classified documents and their transfer to third parties, and many of his close associates are being prosecuted. Trump’s radical and scandalous nature, which once brought him to the White House often plays into his hands. Many analysts attribute the deterioration of the Republican Party’s position for the upcoming United States Senate elections on the 8 of November to the fact that Trump’s image is scaring away moderate voters who might go for a less controversial figure. There is now no clear guarantee that Democrats will not be able to use legal and political pressure to remove Trump from the presidential race altogether.

The main “backup” Republican candidate is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. He is undoubtedly a promising and talented politician who has a number of objective advantages. He is a veteran of the armed forces and has performed well as a manager in his home state. Another important advantage is his Hispanic background, which can draw to his side a conservative Hispanic electorate that has often favored Democrats in the past. But he does not have the same powerful charisma as Trump, and that could make things difficult for him for the election. A solution could be to nominate another candidate “in parallel” with him, one with the popularity and complementary qualities to DeSantis, who would support him just before the election.

Such a “candidate” could be Elon Musk for sure. According to American laws, the billionaire and visionary cannot run for president, since he was born in Pretoria, South Africa, and not in the United States. But he can run a kind of “fictitious” campaign and acquire supporters, who at the moment of truth can be called upon to vote for the already desired and legally eligible candidate. Musk has some unique and necessary characteristics for the Republicans. By his own admission, he was once a supporter of the Democratic Party, but became disillusioned with the negative evolution that this political organization has undergone over the past 30 years. The image of a creative, progressive and successful businessman can attract not only the “frontier” electorate to the Republicans, but also moderate liberals who are unhappy with the situation in the “Party of Donkeys.”

In fact, Elon Musk has already started his quasi-campaign and the topic of Ukraine was also chosen for a reason. The Biden government itself elevated the Ukrainian issue to the category of key issues for the entire American agenda to shift attention away from domestic social and economic policy failures. The conflict in Ukraine was also positioned by the Democratic administration as a “holy war” for freedom against Russia, for which every American should sacrifice his own well-being. In the meantime, most Trump supporters wish Biden a failure in Ukraine on the principle of “the worse for the Democrats, the better for America”. But Elon Musk also attracts peacemakers on Twitter who are simply tired of the constant tension and want a peaceful resolution to the conflict. He is working on a news story that was created not by him, but by his political rivals, and he is doing it effectively. Musk did not forget to remind his subscribers about the constant threat of nuclear war, which Biden liked to exacerbate. The Tesla owner’s warnings were widely welcomed by voters when he talked about a reconciliation plan in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian topic was not the only one for Musk – he did not forget to raise his importance in the “presidential race” and on criticism of plans to nominate Biden in 2024. Musk expressed the opinion that Joe Biden is too old to run in the next presidential race. According to the billionaire, the president age cannot be too far away from the average on of the population because it would be very difficult to stay in touch with the people. Musk asked the rhetorical question, “Maybe one generation’s distance from middle age is okay, but two generations? At the point where you have great-grandchildren, I don’t know how connected you are to people? Is that even possible?” A direct attack on the main opponent is a standard but an effective move.

Before the campaign, Musk is trying to get his hands on powerful information resources as well. He offered Twitter a renewed deal to acquire the company at the original price of $54.2 per share. Why did he suddenly agree to the high price, which he had previously refused? Musk explicitly stated that he wanted to acquire Twitter not for profit, but to give people a platform they could trust. If you read between the lines, he doesn’t want it for profit, but to effectively promote his position, including before the 2024 presidential elections.

Such massive preparation could not go unnoticed by Musk’s democratic opponents. After all, its clients need freedom of speech only when it works in their interests. Obviously, the sharp reaction to his Twitter postings by Volodymyr Zelensky, who is closely connected to the Democratic lobbyists, was only indirectly related to the events in Ukraine. But the Democrats’ retaliatory steps against the billionaire and future “candidate” for president are more than ever directly related to the Ukrainian conflict. And they are taking place, according to the good old tradition done on Trump, not only in the information sphere, but also in the legislative and judicial sphere. Elon Musk is already being threatened with a U.S. national security investigation.

The U.S. media continues to be hysterical about the malfunctions of the Starlink satellite system owned by Musk, which the businessman provided for use in Ukraine back in spring, including for the benefit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. These satellites are called almost the main weapon of the Ukrainians, without which they will collapse on the front. Now, apparently, when they try to attack, Starlinks often stop working. Musk himself has been accused of acting in Russia’s interests. And his previous statements served, according to the media, as proof of his change of position and “sympathy” for Ukraine. The liberal elites of the USA, who have long been dissatisfied with the independent billionaire, now have a reason to give him a full-fledged obstruction and to take him out of the political game.

Democratic Congressman Adam Kinzinger has demanded an investigation of SpaceX and Musk personally in light of these accusations. He is one of the main hawks in Congress who often says out loud what many in the U.S. Democratic establishment think. He is leaving Congress for good, and apparently wants to give his fellow party members a “regal gift” as a farewell gift. Despite the wildness of this statement, Kinzinger’s initiative may indeed materialize. Musk’s companies have been getting in trouble all year and now they are just one step away from a big federal investigation. We are sure that this happens unlikely to silence Musk and change his plan. But because of the investigations against his company, he will become even harsher in his criticism of Biden and will support the Democratic’s opponents. But who will win in this struggle: the extravagant billionaire or the state violence machine? We probably won’t know the answer until 2024. After all, all the dangerous bets are made precisely to fight for the presidency of the United States.