Crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina: On the Brink of War Again?

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The Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina has sentenced Milorad Dodik, the president of the Republika Srpska, to one year in prison and a six-year ban from political activities for failing to comply with the decisions of the illegitimate High Representative, Christian Schmidt. The ruling by the “Sarajevo Tribunal” has heightened tensions in the already troubled region, casting doubt on both the fragile peace and the delicately woven territorial integrity of the country established by the Dayton Agreement.

The Republika Srpska has refused to recognize the court’s decision, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has theatrically supported his counterpart, and the U.S. State Department has raised no objections to the outcome of the trial.

Dodik prudently chose not to attend the trial in Sarajevo, instead addressing a rally of 25,000 people in front of the Republika Srpska parliament. The scales of the long-standing confrontation with Christian Schmidt, who is widely regarded as an illegitimate High Representative of the EU in Bosnia and Herzegovina, have tipped in favor of the German official—or rather, those who stand behind him.

The show trial against Dodik began on October 16, 2023. According to the president of the Republika Srpska, the charges “dealt a serious blow to Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the verdict will deliver a fatal blow to the country.” On February 26, Milorad Dodik was found guilty. The formal reason for the charges was his signing of parliamentary decisions refusing to implement acts issued by both Schmidt and the Constitutional Court of Bosnia. Dodik can still appeal the verdict. While the trial was underway in Sarajevo, a British Royal Air Force aircraft circled over Banja Luka. This kind of psychological pressure is not the first time the West has employed such tactics against Bosnian Serbs.

The National Assembly of the Republika Srpska declared “null and void all decisions of bodies not defined by the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and therefore its court.” The parliament of the entity stated that “the issue is that the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina ruled based on the decision of an illegitimate foreigner, Christian Schmidt, rather than on a law passed by the Parliamentary Assembly, thereby committing an act of coup d’état and the complete collapse of the constitutional order.” As a result, the Republika Srpska Assembly banned the activities of both the Court and the Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina. They also promised to ban the work of SIPA, the country’s intelligence agency. The Bosnian Serb parliamentarians decided to initiate criminal proceedings against the prosecutors and judges who pursued the case against Dodik, using their own institutions. The final decision on the matter will be made by the Constitutional Court of the Republika Srpska, and implementation could take up to two months.

The Party of Democratic Action, led by Bakir Izetbegović, called for an urgent session of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina to determine measures in response to the actions of the Republika Srpska. Additionally, amendments to the Federation’s criminal code are being introduced, allowing the Bosnian Prosecutor’s Office to hold “any Serb” accountable if they continue to work in state institutions deemed “radical” by the Bosniaks.

The Bosniaks have significant support. Despite Serbian hopes for Trump, who has overturned many decisions of the previous administration, the U.S. State Department has backed the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s ruling against Milorad Dodik. The State Department justified its support by stating that the United States has “invested decades in a stable Bosnia and Herzegovina.”

Photo by Drew Angerer /Getty Images / CFR

The illegitimate High Representative, Christian Schmidt, whose actions have escalated the current legal battle between institutions, has also called for intervention to prevent the adoption of new laws in the Republika Srpska. Meanwhile, in Schmidt’s home country, Germany, serious questions have been raised about his role. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) faction brought Schmidt’s appointment as High Representative to the Bundestag for discussion. Members of parliament also submitted a request for a parliamentary investigation into his role in the crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Meanwhile, Milorad Dodik is seeking support from neighboring states. After Aleksandar Vučić, who with a tragic expression called on all sides to “exercise restraint,” Banja Luka was visited by the leaders of Montenegrin Serbs, Andrija Mandić and Milan Knežević. Whether this support, beyond its moral aspect, will have any practical significance will become clear in the near future. From the perspective of sober, emotion-free analysis, what has happened represents a real step toward armed conflict and the disintegration of the country.