Congressional budget: spring tensions

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The budget wars in Congress continued, and lawmakers tried to hurriedly approve a new budget before the deadline of March 22, when the U.S. government was facing a shutdown. Just before the vote, the Republicans managed to extract another concession, and achieved a ban on rainbow flags on U.S. embassy buildings. It was a very dangerous concession from the ideological point of view from the Democrats, but Biden wanted to prevent a shutdown, and he put the economy of the country above the interests of the LGBTQ+ community, which was forgotten in the face of real problems.

However, on the very eve of the budget vote, new scandals erupted. It was revealed that the State Department was non-publicly sponsoring the Taliban and continuing to house Afghan refugees in the United States. The right wing of the Republicans promised to sabotage such a budget, which does not really fight migrants and does not cut government spending, while the growth of the U.S. national debt is already out of control. In addition, at the same time, Congress held chaotic hearings on the impeachment of the president, where Hunter Biden’s former partners accused the entire presidential family of total corruption.

Because of this, Democrats ran around at the hearings wearing Vladimir Putin masks, and tried to portray Republicans as agents of Russia for trying to uncover the Biden family’s Ukrainian corruption, thereby framing “the entire Ukrainian people”. There was a risk that in retaliation the Republicans would finally refuse to allocate military tranches to Kiev, the issue of which had not been resolved and was not clearly tied to the issue of adopting a coherent U.S. budget. The U.S. military, in turn, again resented the tactics of the Ukrainian armed forces in trying to hold on to every village for the sake of informational “victories” at the cost of heavy losses. Europeans were afraid that Russia would manage to break through the Ukrainian front in the summer, and then there would be no more tranches from the United States, and the “militarists” in Washington would finally leave the Europeans to deal with the consequences.

Photo by David B. Gleason / Wikipedia.org / CC BY-SA 2.0

And yet, Mike Johnson decided to ease the tension, and on March 22, the U.S. House of Representatives, in an emergency mode, agreed on a new federal budget for the period until September 30. The Speaker miraculously managed to avoid a shutdown, because the deadline expired on that day, but the price of compromise was high, and conflicts began in the camp of Republicans. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, an influential Trump supporter, presented a petition for the speaker’s resignation because she was unhappy that Johnson had failed to seriously cut government spending. Moreover, there was also the fact that he passed the budget largely due to the support of Democrats, while 130 Republicans (which represents 60% of their Congressional caucus) voted against it.

Now the procedure of recalling the Speaker is simplified to the extreme and it is enough to retrieve 5 signatures of congressmen. So if 3 up to 5 Republicans along with all Democrats vote against Johnson, he loses the Speaker’s chair, and will go into oblivion, following Kevin McCarthy. Marjorie Taylor Greene poses a serious threat to Johnson to influence him, if he, for example, in the near future agrees on the allocation of Ukrainian tranches and does not deal with the security of the southern border of the U.S., the probability of recalling the Speaker will be very high. On March 23, Congress went on vacation until April 9, but then it was supposed to have two working weeks.

During this time, Ukrainian lobbyists would try to push through a vote on the tranches. Johnson’s fellow party members demanded that he deals with migration first, before moving on to the Ukraine issue. For him, the stakes had now risen sharply, and the speaker could be thrown out of his seat at any moment, and then Congress would be plunged into severe apparatus chaos before the election, losing its ability to function. Well, the beneficiary of the situation was Donald Trump, who through his supporters launched the processes of controlled chaos in Congress, is reaping its sweet benefits. It is now easier for Trump to campaign criticizing “Washington corruptors” who are unable to govern the country with Ukraine becoming his hostage, which he is ready to “sell” back to Biden only for concessions disastrous for the latter.

It must be said that Mike Johnson had his own personal victories, and along with another “temporary” budget, the US Congress passed a new $3.3 billion aid package to Israel. Given that Johnson is an outspoken Israeli lobbyist, his hand was obvious to everyone. Although technically the Trumpists, demanding budget austerity, condemned the Speaker, this is their strategic electoral victory. It should be understood that Israel will get the money, despite the fact that Benjamin Netanyahu did not make concessions to Biden, and the president managed to avoid a shutdown at a high price.

After all, for this gesture of “goodwill” he was denounced by the pro-Palestinian leftist voters, which Biden badly needed in November, and the U.S. a few days later even had to give up its veto on the UN resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip to give them some positive signal. Speaker Johnson only got more headaches after passing a bill to fund the government and yet, Joe Biden signed a U.S. budget bill that provides $1.2 trillion dollars to keep a number of U.S. federal agencies operating through the end of fiscal year 2024. It is impossible not to talk about the details of the budget, which became the result of mutual compromises between Republicans and Democrats.

In addition to addressing the “Israeli issue,” $300 million in funding was provided for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, although the fight for the main tranches will continue. Military salaries were raised by 5.2%, as the Democrats wanted. As for the Republicans’ achievements, the budget of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security was increased by 1.8%, with funds allocated for hiring two thousand additional border guards and increasing the number of beds for migrants to 42 000. Aid to migrant NGOs has been cut by 20%. At the same time, 12 000 visas will be allocated for residents of Afghanistan who helped the U.S. army, which is a compromise solution.

On the one hand, this is a Democratic victory, but on the other hand, the Democratic administration has long been criticized for abandoning the Afghans, and it has admitted its miscalculations. Another Republican victory is that funding for the State Department and the international aid program was cut by 6%, and embassies will be banned from displaying unofficial flags, including LGBTQ+ flags. Funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) was banned for one year. Slightly reduced the FBI’s budget, although 200 million was left for a new headquarters in Maryland.

The one clear liberal concession is that there are no cuts to social programs and provisions related to abortion restrictions, and an additional $1 billion for the Head Start education program for poor children. Another 120 million increase in funding for cancer research, although it suited both parties. Although formally the budget is temporary, the agreed funds will be enough until the end of the fiscal year in the U.S., i.e. until the end of September, which means that a new budget battle between Democrats and Republicans will begin as a month before the November elections, when Americans will elect not only the President of the United States, but also the 119th Congress.

Against this background, the “militarists” in Congress were in a hurry to vote on the Ukrainian tranches. They wanted to allocate something after April 9, when lawmakers return from vacation for nine days. Then they have another vacation until the end of April. During May, Congress will also be in session for a very short time. Speaker Mike Johnson promised to start by passing immigration reform, with a small amount of spending to go along with it. His priority remained solving the migration crisis which causes millions of illegals storming the U.S. border. It is the topic of migration that Americans are most concerned about, with inflation in second place, and the Ukrainian agenda not even in the top 10 topics.

U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson
Photo by Anna Moneymaker / Maine Morning Star

It was clear that the Democrats will probably not accept either the restriction of uncontrolled migration or the small amount of tranches for Kiev. In addition, the Republicans would probably promise more money and weapons to Israel, and this would not find favor with the Democratic Party, which is already actively pressuring Israel. In addition, right-wing Republicans have continued to threaten to throw Johnson out of the Speaker’s office if he gives even a dime to Ukraine. As we have already written, they have already submitted a petition for the resignation of the Speaker, which hangs over him like a sword of Damocles, so Johnson himself did not hurry anywhere with the Ukrainian tranches.

The White House had no choice but to harass the Europeans, forcing them to hand over their remaining weapons and demanding that they issue war bonds to somehow find money for the sinking Ukrainian economy. However, this did not solve the budget crisis in Kiev, and Washington was afraid of a collapse of the Ukrainian front during the summer, in which case Kiev would definitely not receive any tranches. However, after the approval of the main U.S. budget, it was a different story.